My bias is towards a higher than expected headline number with the other two measures ticking up on a yoy basis. This opinion comes on the back of looking at the sub-group patterns which are very diverse so you need to dig down to the point where ...

Another weak Australian CPI reading could see the RBA 'rapidly adopt a more aggressive stance'

I enjoy these theoretical constructs applied to a 'real' world which is of course much more complicated. But truly I think its in the complications we need to look for answers than a poorly constructed model. 1. World trade is scaled in both breadth ...

Secular stagnation in the open economies: How it spreads, how it can be cured

1. Debt is between willing borrowers and willing lenders. Let them be accountable. 2. Systemic weaknesses were behind the latest financial crisis so some have been addressed; some have not (e.g. animal spirits and greed leading to shoddy investments ...

Despite An Inevitable Credit Correction, Debt Demand Will Swell To $62 Trillion Through 2020

He mentions many successes as well as failures but goes on to suggest market (free market) failures. Markets do not perform well unless there are some pre-conditions such as property rights, law and order, freedom of association and so on. These ...

The Failure of Free Migration

Simplistic

UK Consumer Price Inflation: June 2016

Sadly, the AUD CPI is measured only quarterly though this does add to volatility if you get on the right side of the surprise. Previous quarter was low surprise by wide margin. Worth betting on a positive surprise? Yes, but I got the last one wrong. ...

Reserve Bank of Australia Looks to Inflation Report to Determine Next Course of Action

AUD is already 22% down from its peak in July 2012 (TWI basis). So the real issue is how low does the AUD have to go to achieve appropriate monetary conditions? Our analysis suggests that monetary conditions are too loose for an Australian economy ...

Aussie Devaluation Best for RBA in Extreme Scenario, Says Eslake

The exchange rate has fallen by 10% or so on a broad basis. In short, monetary conditions have already eased considerably and by much much more than a 25 bp interest rate cut. Monetary conditions are a combination of interest rate and exchange rate. ...

BOE's Vliegh says there should be an immediate rate cut and further measures

A hurdle of 60% would not support Leave but neither would it support Join or Remain. Entering into any kind of union with only 51% confidence is not intelligent. Consider advising your daughter (if asked) on marrying a bloke in whom she has 51% ...

Will Brexit Spark a Constitutional Crisis in the U.K.? Q&A

The economy turned sour in 2013 and has been adjusting gradually taking most things in its stride but not convincing the forex market (mainly commodity bears or agnostic). Forex pairs have two sides so looking at AUD pairs be very sure you look ...

Australian businesses turn bullish

Sadly there are inefficiencies in all countries and even if there are issues of degree we need to ask the question in all countries: "If you are committed to free international trade then are all of your policies which involve market interventions ...

Global economy 'grim' and G20 must step up to fix it: China

The "West" needs to be encouraged to maintain an easing bias (of monetary conditions) and encourage emerging markets to move to ease monetary conditions further. Emerging market economies are in a much better position to lead the world economy ...

Global economy 'grim' and G20 must step up to fix it: China

"The situation is complicated, and this statement is complicated, and so our framework for making decisions is flexibly complicated so that market participants will not have a clue when we make decisions, what decisions we make and how. Maybe when ...

SNB says ready to adapt in post-Brexit market: newspaper

Monetary conditions are determined by the short interest rate and the exchange rate combined and when we talk about normalisation we do not just mean interest rates alone. We have studied co-ordinates of USD TWI and 90 day rate (as well as for many ...

It's Time To Raise Rates

Labor productivity has not been mentioned in this article. Unit labor cost is a much better indicator of the pressure of wages on prices. A knee-jerk reaction to Brexit will be for firms to be more cautious about hiring (wait for the smoke to clear) ...

Jobs Report in U.S. to Get Extra Scrutiny in Post-Brexit World

The range of comments (at the end) in this article is too narrow for me. The previous month was a rogue number and Brexit occurred before that. My point is that 150 to 250 would not surprise due to the former and around 100 would still keep USD ...

US Non-Farm Payrolls Preview

For the time being since????

BOJ's Kuroda: CPI likely to be slightly negative for time being

Germany must be laughing all the way to the Bundesbank. Low unemployment, booming economy, record low interest rates, very competitive exchange rate and political and (relative) social stability. The so-called union is succeeding for that country. ...

After Brexit, Another European Referendum Looms

The hung parliament is the latest in a long series of unfriendly news for the AUD and it is typical of forex markets to push such cases to the limit. The bears took over in 2013 and you really have to wonder how much more negativity can be pushed ...

RBA could hasten AUD/NZD’s path to parity

In modern economies the central bank is actually part of government and that applies to Australia. Countries which lose credibility in the eyes of international investors are likely to enjoy net capital flight and a sharply lower currency. The ALP ...

Australian Hung Parliament Sees AUD/USD Gap Down