Let's face the truth. The payrolls number was irrelevant. All the mounting expectation about how this release would be crucial turned out to be another flop in a very long series of flops. The global economy is in a deflationary phase so we are ...

Rate Hike Hopes Fading Fast

As previously commented: Let's face the truth. The payrolls number was irrelevant. All the mounting expectation about how this release would be crucial turned out to be another flop in a very long series of flops. The global economy is in a ...

We're spending way too much time worrying about the Fed

"Forex markets uncertain!!!" That's a bold call.

Forex markets uncertain as commodities look to build on gains

Let's face the truth. The payrolls number was irrelevant. All the mounting expectation about how this release would be crucial turned out to be another flop in a very long series of flops. The global economy is in a deflationary phase so we are ...

Asian Stocks Rally With Won, Kiwi After Payrolls Data; Oil Falls

The world needs China to devalue faster as part of a package to stimulate Chinese and therefore global demand. Excess supply is the big problem in the world which is also holding FED back. Unless we see an acceleration of Chinese demand there is a ...

China, U.S. commit to refrain from competitive currency devaluations

China needs to be encouraged by the West to devalue more quickly. China has the firepower to lift global demand without causing inflation and the devaluation should be accompanied by easier monetary measures. The USA is muddling along, and Europe is ...

China faces 20 pct chance of a hard landing, says Swiss Re

Very thoughtful and insightful. Tendency to academic rubric. Criticisms: assumes that western powers and politics are somehow free of the same barbs; China was 'closed' for 70 years or so while the rest of the world sort of moved forward, definitely ...

China’s role in an emerging global order

1. NZ is a fantastic place to live and a more open world economy has enabled effective demand to grow quickly for NZ housing and living here. 2. Supply of housing is inflexible in the short run so the only short term outcome is excess demand and ...

New Zealand 'wins gold medal' for housing unaffordability as house prices outpace income...

If this is news we really are in serious trouble.

Have central banks run out of weapons?

At last a sensible comment on China. At 6% growth its annual increase is equivalent to the size of the Swiss economy.

Global Growth – Still Made in China

The US case for a rate hike is still weak and the case for global rates hikes is non-existent. ECON101 teaches that excess aggregate supply will cause aggregate price indicators to move lower. With all countries keen to grow jobs and living ...

Dollar Squeeze Remains Intact

The main takeaway here is that he is being dealt with.

The Man Who Fabricates China's Econ Data Was Arrested For "Selling Power For Sex" And "Lacking...

This is out of date because the Taylor Rule referred to basically closed economy assumptions which no longer apply. In those days world trade was a lot less important and so the exchnage rate didn't much matter to US monetary conditions. Today is a ...

Here’s what the Fed’s rate should be, using rule footnoted in Yellen speech

"up to other government agencies to step up to the plate." Well how likely is that? Not likely at all and we have election and handover to take us through the next 6 months - both of which are uncertain. So investors have only two scenarios to ...

Fed still 'tremendously relevant,' just less effective, says Allianz's El-Erian

I expect they will talk up the global economy and the rate of progress on many fronts. This might be a surprise.

3 Numbers: Janet Yellen speaks –September hike in question

P/E expansion makes sense if the E is sustainable and the discount rate (interest rate) has a downward bias. Put another way the P/E is the inverse of the long bond yield so, yes, P/Es can be biased upwards when inflation and interest rates are ...

A Typical Pattern Shows We’re Headed for Recession

Currency movements tend to reflect policy failures and successes, in the context of a world which (like it or not) is going through a period, unparalleled through history in scope and breadth, of open global trade. Those who feel globalisation is in ...

With world trade in the doldrums, the threat of a new currency war looms

The West needs to encourage further devaluation as part of stimulus program. China is the same size as US economy and growing 3 times faster and a bigger multiple of potential consumer spending and growth. So getting the Chinese consumer spending is ...

China caught in 'dead money' trap as central bank pleads for fiscal stimulus

Policy reaction to inflation outlook. Outlook is for below target inflation rate and so OCR to trend lower. Big picture is economy heading for over full employment but with low inflation also in prospect. Short term for lower OCR but NZD well ...

Wheeler: Monetary policy challenges in turbulent times

'Normal' for this stage of the economic cycle (imprecise) is north of 3% so another 25bp over the next 12 month is neither here not there. The global economy is deflationary and the USA is importing that deflation offsetting 'weak'evidence from the ...

Fed’s Williams appears to back September rate hike