Republicans are strongly against fiscal expansion. Entitlements would need to be addressed at the same time as any attempt to raise spending. Fed will remain very cautious and markets increasingly impatient with Congress. Talking the talk is over ...

Economic Nationalism and Fiscal Reflation Dominate 2017 Global Economic Outlook

After 43 years of being a member it makes sense to have an efficient transition.

Bank of England's Mark Carney 'in plot to make Theresa May abandon Brexit timetable'

At the current rate of Fed tightening it will take 10 years to get back to 'normal' FFR for this stage of the economic cycle (above 3%). So what is the 'normal' USD exchange rate? For this stage of the cycle the USD is already well above 'normal' ...

Federal Reserve is preparing investors to think about 2017 hikes, former Fed advisor says

As with private life net equity is what matters. And for a country that means all assets owned less all debt owed. Debt is a tool for satisfying willing borrowers and willing lenders. And the Earth is debt free in net terms. We should worry about ...

These countries are saddled with the most debt per person, in one chart

At the current rate of Fed tightening it will take 10 years to get back to 'normal' FFR for this stage of the economic cycle. So what is the 'normal' USD exchange rate? For this stage of the cycle the USD is already well above 'normal' because many ...

2017’s big ‘wild card’ will be the US dollar getting weaker, not stronger, strategist Jim...

So are you buying or selling??

Yellen steams ahead on Fed rate rise but concerns mount on dollar shock

Assuming the 'evidence' continues to support a strengthening economy and the gradual emergence of inflationary pressure, there may be some momentum behind a USD rally. The evidence on inflation remains patchy and the fiscal policies will take months ...

There’s No Stopping Me Now for the USD

This opinion is very much on the optimistic side as it plays down the fact that the party philisophy favors government debt reduction and a much smaller role for government in economic affairs, favors the free market solutions to economic problems ...

3 Numbers: Trump to deliver Reagan-era tax cuts, plus lots of spending

One pound sterling = One and a quarter US dollars.

What Is the Pound Telling Us?

SNB poised to strike at 1.05 EUR/CHF

The Euro-Dollar Parity Bet Is Back

I'm an economist and I've heard this sort of bumph for decades. Think: "Why are there so many economists still working in high paid jobs, and being reported daily with the best being sought after daily for comment and opinion on extremely important ...

Earthquake 'severe' but impact likely to be limited, economists predict

Living with earthquakes and being distant anyway from other other land masses and large populations have bred a resilience here and acceptance of the need to respond to change. There are lessons here for other countries to carry out economic reforms ...

Earthquake 'severe' but impact likely to be limited, economists predict

Rising average earnings is not on its own a threat to inflation risks. Hours worked and productivity are of course part of the equation. So this kind of shallow thinking undermines the message being conveyed here. Republicans have been ...

Focus on Policy Mix Strengthen Dollar Bull Case

Usually driving as well.

Millions of Brits admit to online shopping while drunk

Bond Yields = Risk Free Cash Yield + Inflation Risk Premium + Maturity Risk Premium (and additional item here ignored is default risk premium). Old Normal was = 3% + 1% + 1% (for 10 year maturity) [for argument's sake] Now is = 0.4% +0.4% + 1% [to ...

Fed’s Evans: December Rate Hike Reasonable, Inflation Concerns Persist

Looks like this data series only began in 2004. Its been a rocky ride for the US economy since then so its not much to say that openings are at 'record' high levels. In short a modest recovery in the economy is creating jobs but there is no boom in ...

High level of U.S. job openings show many companies still eager to hire

The labor force is growing at 1%p.a. and jobs growth is about the same - not much reduction in the unemployment rate. This can hardly be described as 'healthy' with the unemployment rate still at 5%! And the full employment rate of unemployment ...

US dollar will win the election, no matter who ends up in the White House

SNB destroyed its reputation for a generation. But it is true that forex market volatility is a very big issue and not just for Switzerland. Floating currencies are theoretically supposed to bring greater forex rate stability than fixed currencies - ...

SNB ready to intervene in currency markets after U.S. election

Bond Yields = Risk Free Cash Yield + Inflation Risk Premium + Maturity Risk Premium (and additional item here ignored is default risk premium). Old Normal was = 3% + 1% + 1% (for 10 year maturity) [for argument's sake] Now is = 0.4% +0.4% + 1% [to ...

Greenspan Sees Bond Yields Climbing as High as 5 Percent Again

The errors have been identified in both cases, published and dealt to. The strength of the currency itself falsifies any negative judgments at this stage. Nothing on the horizon to undermine NZD at the moment.

Rego error at Statistics NZ doubles inflation, complicates life for Reserve Bank