A fairly solid, if far from spectacular, retail sales print from the US. A further uptick in the coming months is hoped for, with consumers starting to spend some of the savings from cheaper gas and lower interest rates. With the slow down in ...

The Really Useless Thread

Very interesting to note how Janet Yellen highlighted the belief that "dollar strength" could weigh on economic activity, when there has been a depreciation in excess of 2.5% in the DXY since December's hike. Taking into account this contradiction, ...

The Really Useless Thread

I think it's a mildly positive report, particularly against the extremely negative market sentiment. Strong earnings growth and a positive number in manufacturing jobs are the key positives. Consensus earlier in week was for 190k, but this was ...

The Really Useless Thread

The ADP number surprised me a little. My trading positions to one side, I hope this bodes well for Friday's NFP print. The employment component from the ISM Manufacturing report released earlier in the week was showing a highly contractionary ...

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Check out the first chart, which shows a larger sample size detailing the relationship between M2 and the S&P500. The second chart shows a much larger sample size of the relationship between the Monetary Base and the S&P500. As you can see, over the ...

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I thought the Fed played it well last night, striking a difficult balance of acknowledging risks but not veering from December's forecast, which leaves the option of a March hike in their hands. Had they struck a too dovish tone, a greater sell-off ...

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Check out the RBNZ (which I'm sure you've now seen): no change in rates but a decidedly dovish tone, nothwithstanding the nod to house prices, leaving the door open to further easing.

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I think there are plenty of arguments, in relation to the economic outlook, for the Fed adopting a more dovish tone tonight - one that is at least a little closer to the current pricing in the markets. The disparity between Fed Funds futures and the ...

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The pricing of Fed Fund futures, and the direction in which it and, commensurately, the US yield curve moves do matter a lot when it comes to trading FX, as moves in the former are a big contributory factor to the value of the dollar. Hence why it ...

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I would respectfully disagree about all US numbers being solid - though most certainly are. But if you look at Industrial Production, which accounts for 20% of the US economy, there is a noticeable deterioration (in large part, no doubt, due to ...

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Agree on that point. The market will very likely test this rhetoric from Iraq - as there exists a huge chasm between these words and OPEC and non-OPEC members - namely Saudi Arabia and Russia and, to a lesser extent, Iran - agreeing on, and sticking ...

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Some dovish comments from the normally hawkish St Louis Fed President, James Bullard. “Nevertheless, with renewed declines in crude oil prices in recent weeks, the associated decline in market-based inflation expectations measures is becoming ...

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Definitely marginally more dovish from the MPC compared to the November Inflation Report, but this was pretty much expected by the markets in the build-up to this meeting. So no surprises or anything new there, I would say.

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Waiting for the crude oil inventory data to see the effect from this on the markets. A short-covering rally has been seen in crude, with no evidence, so far at least, that the price action since the dip below $30 represents anything more than some ...

The Really Useless Thread

If we get past short term risk - with focus switching to earnings instead of China and the price of crude - then this should be supportive for gains in the dollar, as the risks of the Fed changing course - becoming more dovish - on their intended ...

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Of course. The assumed risk is too large.

Cable Update (GBPUSD)

I worked on an options trading desk until 2007 and never saw any exotic trade in the market that paid out anything close to $500m. No bank would touch, say, a digital with this size pay-out, as the size of the delta hedges would simply be too much ...

Cable Update (GBPUSD)