I too was looking to see if there was a pullback oppo on AN, but the grinding PA kept saying otherwise.

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I been getting PM's asking to explain mean reversion. Here's a pic showing the basic concept: image Within the long term cycles is the "shorter term variability." That's essentially what we are trading here. As price swings to either side it ...

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Im thinking that the trades you placed at the W61 should have been closed out before news. Scaling in more at W38 was risky. Trading pivots is essentially trading mean reversion. At some point, price may revisit your original entries.

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Go here and download the pdf. It’ll bring you up to speed on key points. url

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Agree completely, AJ was a prime setup. image

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Played out nicely indeed!

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I rarely will keep a trade open during a red news release. Trading CAD news has kicked me in the balls so many times, so I step aside altogether.

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Thanks again for the update.

Yet another news reader...

Price will often test a previous high before reversing. Putting a stop before that may take you out unnecessarily. Also it is common for previous late week markups to test the 38/61 levels before reversing. See my post here as an example. url

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I would have to agree. PA keeps grinding up.

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WTI rolling over nicely. image

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Yep, i am watching that one closely.

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Nothing wrong with that. Add to the stack and live to fight another day.

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Another example working out properly.... image image Edit: I positioned trades under the new WP as it was also under the DO. It started breaking down from the Sunday open, however I generally never take trades on the open. I like to wait to see ...

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Just keep an eye on next weeks PA. If it retests its previous high and fails then I would scale in some shorts. image

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Thanks man, its what I have identified as the lowest of the low hanging fruit. Just need to wait for it and strike. There's at least several per week. All you need is one or two and go deep.

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No not really, price action and watching how far it goes until it hits ADR, etc. I generally don't like to sleep in trades much nor hold over the weekends. Ill see a prime setup and hit it hard, take the money and run. I only do maybe 2-4 trades per ...

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Here's the example of why I closed it out. The pullback of the .236 is my last line in the sand. image As you mentioned it ran above and back below the ADR.

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I exited around the same area as well. My general rule is draw a fib from the start of the swing to the latest high. If it drops below the 236 then im out. It tagged it and bounced higher. Im ok with it. IMO trading is not so much how much you can ...

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Unexpected surplus on oil coincided with the 61.8 on the daily (which oil likes). image image

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