Judging by the very wide range of expectations (10 economists) it is clear that this data series is very volatile and difficult to get right - whether exports or imports. Meaningful data require a number of adjustments to get a clear year on year ...

China's trade balance logs a better than expected surplus of $46.7 Bln in July, imports up...

A failure to forecast one part of the cycle is not 100 per cent failure. Peaks and troughs are the shortest duration and therefore the toughest to pick. Modelling we were always told should be used but not believed. Sub summary is we economists know ...

Why Economists Cannot Forecast Recessions

NZ tax and pension policies are entrenched and discourage saving for retirement. RBNZ knows this very well yet does not educate on this issue as any solution would be politically uncomfortable. The distortions instead encourage people to buy houses ...

Bascand: Reserve Bank says lower external debt is encouraging but some risks remain

Male domination in politics is not going to help Japan to find a secure footing in the modern world economy. Thirty years of suffocating talk and glacial reform have seen Japan slip back down the ladder of performance. Japan US military background ...

Koike victory puts Abe on the back foot

US monetary conditions have moved closer to normal during the past couple of years. When we talk about normal we need to relate the combination of short term interest rates and the broad USD exchange rate to where the US economy is at in the cycle. ...

Riding the Janet Yellen Wave in USD

This is not a situation for force nor sanctions.

US is ready to use force in NKorea but prefers trade clout

The issues here go well beyond the UK position, hence the input from an Italian perspective. There seem to be at least six major headings for countries in the region to reach a committed, political decision about : single market, customs union, ...

Brexit may not actually mean Brexit, Italian ambassador suggests

For as long as US trade policy appears to be designed by Homer Simpson then USA will fall further and further behind the five major trends shaping the world economy. The five trends are: 1) Huge chunks of the world have been freed up to participate ...

Hedge fund manager Kyle Bass: Our relationship with China has taken 'major step' for the worse

A great deal of bad news is in the GBP and so it makes you wonder about fresh sources of weakness. I play it via GBP/CHF partly in case the SNB has another paroxysm and partly because there is no funding cost. But I invest not trade (have been known ...

The Big Picture From FX Positioning; 2 Trade Opportunities - BofAML

Stalin 'persuaded' the Chinese not to push further south and take the whole peninsula, fearing that the western allies would retaliate elsewhere e.g. Eastern Europe. So in a sense this situation is a legacy of the 2nd WW and yet another one which ...

While I greatly appreciate the efforts of President Xi & China to help with North Korea, it...

Brief comments: 1) China. I have spent many visits there since 2011 (4 weeks averaging each trip) and formed the view that perceptions of China from outside are completley off the mark. Just 3 points: a) for the first time in centuries ordinary ...

New Zealand optimistic of free trade deal with U.S.

Occasionally, when a new trend really needs to win a tiebreaker, you get what you are looking for as a forex trader/investor. The UK election did not produce a tiebreaker so we face another 6 months of "Much Ado about Nothing". For get about soft ...

UK Politics: Tories and Labour Held Secret Talks On Soft Brexit - Telegraph

The AUD just followed the USD/CHF up.

The situation on the Swiss labor market in May 2017

The suggestion is that the FED should have more 'business savvy' (read 'conservative') board members. The financial crisis reflected the fact that the financial sector was not self governing at allwell and that many 'respectable' institutions were ...

Trump set to make first moves at completely revamping the Federal Reserve

If EU is the champion of free trade then there can hardly be any issue with EU members leaving the union? Have I missed soemthing? New Zealand is an economic pimple but has contributed evidence that small economies are able to perform extremely well ...

The Eurozone’s Hidden Strength

Big pockets of strength combined with big holes of weakness and potential political volatility. This is still a leaky ship going at the same over all pace below trend, below UK and USA, below just about everywhere, strangled by red tape and ...

The Eurozone’s Hidden Strength

What is the magic numerical formula? The Taylor Rule has been around for 30 to 40 years and is monitored already by Fed officials and Governors. So there is no 'News' value here except at the extreme margin. Central Bankers are trained at their ...

Trump Said to Pick Nominees for 2 Positions on Fed Board

Since this is not a floating currency the concept of 'market' is very fuzzy and therefore the concept of 'forecasting' even fuzzier. If you hope to trade this 'market' then you also need a witchdoctor and some very strong spirits.

Yuan's Forecasters Getting It Wrong as China Jolts Markets

In short, not much has really changed.

Vive l’Euro?

Yes sellers are in the majority. I like the way the local economic numbers are coming into line, while politics is the big issue with the media. As for commodities the situation remains bearish. Elsewhere growth momentum seems to be picking up which ...

RBA Index of Commodity Prices May 2017