GBP is way undervalued on fundamentals but still very vulnerable to politics. Expect major spike as details emerge before Christmas about smoother negotiations. Theresa May has had a very rough 16 months or so and must be philosophical by now about ...

UK Is Said To Agree To EU Liabilities Of Up To EUR100B: FT

You can't be very united - you either are or you ain't. Appropriate policy path has not changed - pants for panties, that's all. FED will behave, well like the FED usually behaves. But the mystery remains - very near full employment, unemployment ...

New York Fed's Dudley: Fed Chair transition has been 'so far so good', says FOMC is very...

Can anyone tell us how this change is going to change the direction of FED policy compared to under Yellen?

Powell: Confirmation hearing

"Set it by a while" Hamlet says, not knowing the chalice is poisoned. Theresa May has nothing to lose in now settling with EU as far as practicable by Christmas. She did not seek to topple David Cameron, she did not seek to topple the Remain ...

Sterling hedging eerily calm on EU summit

He says that trade surplusses are overstated in Switzerland and so the currency is too high rather than too low. He indicates other reasons why published surplus is persistent but does not indicate any policy changes to fix them. For example, their ...

Jordan: High Swiss current account surplus: consequences for SNB monetary policy?

Expect a series of more positive and upbeat news on UK economy. While Brexit politics wane in importance animal entrepreneurial spirits i.e. economics will become more important. Shifting resources into more profitable uses will do much more than ...

UK Manufacturing orders strongest for nearly 30 years

On fundamentals and historical analysis I have a range of 140 to 165 for this pair. Bears have had a perfect storm. So even from a fundamental point of view there could be even more bad news to arrive driving the pair lower as suggested. But bear ...

One Of The Biggest Opportunities Yet? GBPCHF Wave Analysis

There are real issues to be addressed for all countries. At the margin all that matters is that protectionist measures are removed and that includes US protectionism. Donald continues to whistle in the wind of change.

After my tour of Asia, all Countries dealing with us on TRADE know that the rules have...

China's housing demand is more complex than people moving to cities from the country. Rapid increases in living standards in turn encourages people in cities to demand better accommodation. Then we know that the aging of buildings is a factor. ...

The truth behind China’s crisis

The real reasons for sluggish world growth lie in the failure of too many advanced economies ignoring simple ECON 101 tenets. Countries which have designed and implemented sensible economic reforms, have introduced tax and benefit reforms and fiscal ...

Cheap and nasty money is what’s keeping a zombie global economy afloat

This could end up like watching paint dry. Time after time seemingly confident FED representatives have got it completely wrong as JY has continued to be cautious and correct. Better to talk when there is something to talk about than turn out for a ...

The next Fed chair could take a small policy step that would make a huge difference

The market was expecting a rate rise of the same magnitude (see FF Calendar). The BoE therefore did not surprise the market on the upside leaving the market now looking at another rate rise many months hence. Bottom line - sell on this news. The ...

Fitch: UK Rate Rise Has Little Growth Impact, Shows Global Shift

The Taylor Rule requires a judgement on the precise distance between actual and potential output - the output gap. This is also known as the distance between currently employed resources and full employment. This distance has been the very ...

The bond market should brace for a possible ‘Taylor tantrum’

Sadly, economics is in the back seat withpolitics in the front both as driver and passenger. Betting on a currency which has politics as the driver is the flip of a coin. However, there are signs of a deal before Christmas and you might get enough ...

The Brexit economy: the storm clouds are gathering

The obvious first point is that monetary policy is itself only one of several economic policy decisions so the survey is inherently weak because the other decision areas are not described nor fixed. A large part of the need for money tools remains ...

What will monetary policy look like after the crisis?

Simplistic argument which flies in the face of the balance of criticism against the FED for being too cautious in raising rates, The GFC and its aftermath is not even mentioned. In a world of much more open trade the global output gap becomes much ...

One easy explanation for Fed Chair Yellen’s low inflation 'surprise' is staring her in the face

Probably each of these 4 would agree that there is a lot more which is yet to be understood than there is currently. The scale and diversity of politically inspired sanctions and other trade restrictions are a particular worry within a context of ...

As the quartet breaks up, central banking leadership flux looms

My very little brain tells me that working out the odds of a hard Brexit are impossible to assess right now. More interesting is the evolving bullish case for the USD which is strong now and would be strengthened further with EU/UK disagreement ...

Analysts: The pound could drop almost 20% further in a 'no deal' Brexit scenario

The threats are political. The FMs cannot resolve those. When China stands out as the country where economic policy reforms have the greatst momentum you know you really have problems. Politically driven economic sanctions, EU treacle negotiations, ...

IMF head Lagarde warns of rising risks to global economy

If his is a death wish then we really are in trouble with Trump in charge. The evidence suggests Kim does not have a death wish but has a wish to rule NK as though it really mattered to anyone outside NK. At home he is important. Abroad he is nobody ...

N.Korea Foreign Minister Says Trump 'Lit The Wick Of War' With Speech At UN - Tass