The market favours stability over short-term instability and uncertainty created by a power struggle.

The Swamp

The MPC today being a little less dovish (there were outlier calls beforehand for a member of the MPC to vote for a cut) than in recent months gave sterling an additional push, with the bulk of the heavy lifting obviously done by the Fed. I broadly ...

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You're right, the Fed doing nothing is fully expected - an increase in rates On Wednesday would unleash a huge wave of volatility, purely due to the fact that no Fed speaker has prepared the market for the possibility of such an event. However, all ...

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Absolutely.

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"(6) A new series of four targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTRO II), each with a maturity of four years, will be launched, starting in June 2016. Borrowing conditions in these operations can be as low as the interest rate on the deposit ...

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Lesson learned from December's disappointment by Mario. Surpassing expectations and rightly so, I think, given the moribund EZ economy. QE can always be increased in future meetings, if needed, though its efficacy is being questioned more and more.

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The stakes are surely too high for OPEC and Russia not to deliver, given how they've let expectations mount and ignite and fuel a huge rally If the meeting takes place and no agreement is reached, then price falling below $30 and making new lows is ...

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Crude oil is reluctant to surrender its recent massive gains, in response to terrible trade data from China, in which exports fell by a quarter in February. Other commodities have suffered more this morning relative to crude, but so far nothing ...

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Market participants are this morning focusing on the downgraded economic growth forecast from China over the weekend, with GDP for 2016 now predicted to come in at 6.5% (from 7%). This has put mining and resource stocks under a little pressure, but ...

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Fair enough, mate. I enjoy this thread when it's fluid with lots of contributors bringing thoughtful analysis to the table. Personally, I don't come here purely for the educational aspect or wanting to be mentored. But that's just me, my personal ...

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I think there is a grave danger that some newer traders who frequent this thread fall into group think, by attempting to use the same approach as Sisse (even the same language), without appreciating the intricacies of his methodology and the thought ...

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Agreed. And the strong rally following weak data, clearly showing current sentiment - the market wants to pop higher and is (for now, anyway) totally willing to discount poor fundamentals.

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Weekly chart gives clear picture of price knocking at key resistance, showing potential for a major break higher.

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The consensus in the market is for the ECB next week to definitely cut their key deposit rate by at least 10bps. It is more of a mixed picture on whether there will be an increase in the amount of assets purchased under its QE program. There still ...

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Neither the increased possibility of more QE/monetary stimulus from the ECB, the announced 50bps cut to the RRR by PBoC or the solid performance of crude could lift equities. A bearish close on SPX - same as Friday's session. As you say, Chinese ...

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Some disappointment in the market about the G20 presenting no plan to boost growth through fiscal stimulus. Equities, weak across the board, received a very minor boost from the PBoC cutting reserve requirements for banks. Cable so far looking very ...

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It's incredibly difficult for a country to raise its birth rate, once long term demographic trends are in place. Taiwan, for instance, has never had restrictions on a number of births per couple, but its birth rate is 1.1. China's birth rate is ...

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The renminbi is overvalued, of that there can be little doubt, and there will certainly exist a desire from many Chinese officials to devalue, as a way of - they hope - kick-starting their slowing economy and halting the capital outflows. However, ...

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