Its a big risk. Its another occasion for gridlock to come to centre stage. Any event which shows off that a country can't make important lifeline decisions will have its currency undermined. Sell USD.

Treasury Traders Brace for Volatility With Debt-Limit Chaos Near

Well its a tough activity. A day trader can expect any currency pair to move by 5 to 10 per cent. Just because it has not happened recently is no comfort.

JPMorgan says U.S. dollar strength will be ‘fairly short-lived’

This is a great article for confirming the nexus of three crises framework which we have been promoting - GFC then US inspired trade wars then the Pandemic. The headline of course focusses on only of these three though the body of the article ...

Currency intervention can help counter Covid crisis

The broader backstory for USD is very poor and so a bullish view relies upon continuation of positive surprises which are increasingly likely to be scarce. The unemployment rate even with a good number will be 2% above where it was before the ...

US payrolls may pour cold water on US dollar’s momentum

Nothing new here but I would like to relate the broad idea to the opening up of the global economy to create a clear and present opportunity to accelerate the pace of global growth and growth in social progress. Three crises are concealing the ...

Long Waves: The History of Innovation Cycles

What crisis? USD is a bad bet in general with continuing legless support for democracy. Nothing to do with inflation nor pandemic. Big picture is improvement in pandemic sentiment (up and down), global recovery and risk on. Other scenarios of course ...

US Dollar's Upside Correction Stalls after 3-4 Weeks of Gains

Not sure if there is coherent argument here. Seems to be arguing you can control supply and price at the same time. But RBNZ not alone in this impenetrable forest.

RBNZ May Cease QE Bond Purchases in Coming Months, BNZ Says

'Hukou' was officially recognised as a policy issue a decade ago as you would expect from a population increasingly educated and informed about social legislation. I would appreciate qualifications of people writing this out of date article or ...

‘Reverse migration’ is picking up in China as workers give up on big cities

Even bet. Better bets elsewhere.

EURUSD looks feeble as congested resistances cripple buoyancy

Switzerland believes in free markets occasionally but not forex markets. It is a grossly wealthy cocoon of a country which is blind to progressive attitudes and policies which just might assist the billions of other people who don't live there.

SNB’s Maechler: We Have Not Started To Reduce Our Balance Sheet

Output gaps are affected by both demand and supply factors so the analyses you are relying upon for your views better be covering both. Some factors on the supply chain side are transitory long eg containers in the wrong place, oil market politics ...

How Long is Transitory?

We are still waltzing with three ladies: GFC, Trade Wars (USA), and P Andemic. And its going to be a long night. The Fed is totally unconvinced and logic is strongly against inflation being uncaged. Big prizes further down the line so worth it to ...

FX Weekly Edge: The USD Roars Back

The biggest problem is not the lack of consultation of history but the lack of consultation of economics. The US has produced and nurtured generations of very high quality economists whose views have been tested and re-tested to good avail. But show ...

When should policymakers reach for the history books? Some examples from the 20th century

This would be a good result for the world if not achieved via protectionism. These beggar thy neighbour policies work against all of the goals of the world such as more even economic development, less poverty and less pollution.

Euro area international trade in goods surplus €10.9 bn

Stockpiling other peoples' cash. Part of this game if you are big and powerful is to shake out other peoples' cash then vacuum it up when the price is right. Go Jamie If it works, its good.

JPMorgan stockpiling cash, waiting for interest rates to rise -CEO

Really good to get these contributions. The Japanese governments continue to honour each year their soldiers who were convicted of those atrocities. This continues to this day and it is bitterly resented by the Chinese people. That is one if the ...

Japan stands by Australia in its battle against China

There is a distinction between climate change and pollution. Climate change has been with us for millenia but the threats to us from our own pollution is very recent. The pollution of the River Thames sparked the political will of the UK in positive ...

Where's the detail? G7 nations agree to boost climate finance

If there is a rationale it is to get people to take the same trade then open an opportunity to take the other side of the trade at a better price.

US sentiment - A Goldilocks consumer?

China needs USA. USA needs China. Each entity will revert to some sort of mean. The sooner the better.

U.S.-China relations are ‘still deteriorating,’ says former U.S. ambassador

Neutral is a weasel call. Expect EUR to trade higher as USA democracy crumbles and EUR benefits from perceived unity and further progress with reforms. USA also lots of short term bad news.

Euro Forecast: EUR/USD Price Outlook Neutral, Hoping for FOMC Guidance