I'm happy with 1:1 to 1:2. I guess lots of experience and a very high success rate would be needed before risking more than 5%? 6.4% per day For momentum entries, do you mean using buy/sell stop orders instead of limit orders. I always use ...

Random walk and Pascals triangle

Its not for TS just for moving SL to BE. Say we have an initial SL of 4 and a TP of 8 and decide to move SL to BE if we move 4 steps to left. I then use your chart with SL of 4 (BE) and TP of 4 although the reward is still the same. Without move to ...

Random walk and Pascals triangle

Dukascopy, are all trades placed anonymous regardless of lot size?

Dukascopy

Thought Dukascopy were coming back to answer the other queries.....

Dukascopy

Seems like moving SL to BE seems to reduce profits over time. Also if we always risk x% of account, for a given TP, profits will increase, the closer SL is to starting point as the increase in money per step seems to more than compensate the ...

Random walk and Pascals triangle

Looks like after breaking through it came back to 1.2737 for a buy opportunity with the trend?

No Brainer Trades

With a TP of 8 and a SL of -4, if the probabilities are .5 for steps left/ right, P(TP) = 33.3% which makes sense as probs of step L/R are equal and TP is twice the distance. But if the prob of step left is increased to just .53, P(TP)=50% ? Thats ...

Random walk and Pascals triangle

Many thanks people!

Random walk and Pascals triangle

you have to do a new one each time you change sl/tp

Random walk and Pascals triangle

DOH! Agreed. FQ has just used thae standard random walk model. So the method allows the SL to be hit more than once in n steps which is what I tried to avoid

Random walk and Pascals triangle

I was going to get P(stopped out) or P(take profit) once I inputted the probabilities for a step to the left/right P(step right) = 1 - P(step left). So if I got the direction of the trend correct P(step right) would not equal P(step left) and I was ...

Random walk and Pascals triangle

How did you come up with the figures; did you count paths or something else? I couldnt come up with a formula and as Medici stated, Pascals triangle may not be the best route

Random walk and Pascals triangle

can you give some theory plz?

Random walk and Pascals triangle

I take it all trades placed with Dukas are anonymous, whether 10 standard lots or 5 mini lots?

Dukascopy

I am not basing the probabilities of a step to the 'left' or 'right' on historical data. Im making an assumption that if I get a signal to sell, eg because of a pinbar at a swing high, then Im assuming the probability of a step right is greater than ...

Random walk and Pascals triangle

thanks, Ill take a look. Im not bothered wheteher its a closed form answer or not.

Random walk and Pascals triangle

Thank you! I will take a look (been a few years since I hit the books) aalthought was thinking about buying Fellers book a couple of days ago. Downloaded Grinstead and Snell's Intro to probability last week and it has moment-generating ...

Random walk and Pascals triangle

and then use those probabilities to work out EV calculations..... Adding the restriction that the end points can be touched only once is making it extremely difficult (for me anyway)

Random walk and Pascals triangle

Hi, Yes trying to calculate probabilities of hitting SL/TP. I was looking at a 1 dimensional lattice with the end points being the SL/TP given the probabilities for 'left' and 'right'

Random walk and Pascals triangle

thanks. (love wolfram) Think I need a modification though. Looking for proability of getting to a specifice node (or two) to simulate stop loss and take profit. So I can only visit that node once (provided the other has not been visited) and I cant ...

Random walk and Pascals triangle