Of course UK unemployment is much much lower than in Europe so the comparison with Draghi is nonsensical. The weakness of the currency also weighs in on the inflation debate. Its the weighing up of all the evidence over time and being true to your ...

The UK economy’s slowdown is clear to all. Except the Bank of England

Italian political weaknesses explain why Italy became a willing member of the EU and later the Euro Area. Economic orthodoxy was sort of achieved by this back door method. It seems very unlikely that an Italian exit is on the cards - add up the ...

Italian Political Crisis Deepens - Snap Elections Beckon

If neutral is 3% then where is late cycle? The economy is at late cycle right? The Fed is not sure so how confident are you? People are grasping at what they think has changed. The magnitude of the change is certainly very large. We are a long, long ...

Fed debates new vocabulary as it shifts away from loose policies

I've been employed as an economist for over 40 years and the same old bitterness lies below the surface of minds which seem incapable of grasping any analysis. In my experience its hard to separate people from their money so isn't it amazing that ...

US economists urge Trump to avoid protectionist mistakes of the 1930s

Many continuing problems are due to ignoring economic analysis. It takes political will to act appropriately and its no use pretending that you did not listen to reason and act upon it. Better to understand the analysis than waste your energy baying ...

US economists urge Trump to avoid protectionist mistakes of the 1930s

Each cycle is different and in this cycle US short term interest rates are way below where they 'should' be for this, late stage with (again) the Fed less certain than a few weeks ago. So a) the global financial crisis is still with us; b) every ...

Is there anything left in the USD bull-run?

The economists are really pointing out the distinction between economic arguments and political arguments. For decades USA economic policies have been criticised as being harmful to the US own interests (fiscal deficits, massive public debt, lack of ...

US economists urge Trump to avoid protectionist mistakes of the 1930s

If the SNB is against it then it must be a good idea.

SNB rallies against “vollgeld initiative”

The Chinese have expertise in wall building. Its going be yoooge.

Donald Trump sends his economic team to China for talks amid trade war stand-off

Back to the real world. A POTUS cannot rule by tweet. The world is progressing by moving around Trump rather than being distracted by fluff.

Mueller is said to raise possibility of Trump subpoena: Wa.Post

The customs union is a complex instutionalised bureaucratic mess which is irrelevant for modern economies because it is inflexible. It is a Linus blanket for small people. And many countries joined the EU because they were small in that sense. It ...

Brexiteers threaten to bring down the Government over any customs union deal

USD is closest to full employment and imprudent stimulus in the pipeline additional to current growth momentum. For this stage of the cycle another 10 to 15% on Broad basis would not be off the radar. It would be good for USD bears if growth ...

EUR/USD Forecast Apr. 30-May 4 - Further falls to come? GDP and CPI eyed

USA is not the world. The world has plenty of slack.

Fed faces new challenge: A world without labor 'slack'

Unclear in this article why global growth should slow down later in 2018. Essential part of her bearish USD call. Otherwise bullish.

As US dollar rises, time to get bearish

Using historical 'norms' the USD index is well below the level it could achieve at this stage of the business cycle, especially in relation to the business cycles in Europe and Japan. China has taken over a lot of the role of leading world economic ...

The US Dollar Is Still the King of Currencies

Is there any deal that Trump can stick to? Xi asked Mnuchin. I'm not sure. My colleague Rex was fired while he was overseas so I'm a bit nervous.

Trump says Mnuchin will travel to China amid trade dispute

If the case for rising rates is so strong why is the USD 8% weaker than when the new admin started??? That is the question for the hapless trader and for everyone else. Running the US by tweet does not build confidence in murrica nor anywhere else. ...

The dollar's getting stronger — and that could be bad news

The RBNZ is also responsible for the stability of the NZ financial system and, partly for the reasons listed in the article (closeness etc), it was essential that the RBNZ Governor make a distinction between the two financial systems. Not least of ...

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Should Lose the Hubris

Brexit news has disappeared. The EU customs union sets common tariffs and other regulations for goods and services trying to get into the union economies. The Lords wants UK to stay locked into this system - a sytem which is tortuous in its ...

Could the royal baby boost the UK economy?

Why is the USD down 8% from when the new Administration took office? Even after several interest rate hikes by the FED and chain rattling about future rate hikes? Currency markets are very good at shorting a bad currency. The strength of the JPY and ...

Dollar Tone Improves