For this stage of the economic cycle (no spare capacity left and fiscal policy stimulus in the pipeline) the FED funds rate should be at least 4.5%pa. So a recent decision to raise to 1.75% to 2% is miles away from 'normal'. I wish more articles ...

How the Fed interest rate rise and other central banks’ monetary policies have left financial...

She has absolutely nothing to lose - a kind of Caesar in reverse - with the knives being out since day 1. I'd say she gets stronger psychologically as each day passes then time might finally move over to her side. As for betting on that confidently, ...

May back in the breach as Brexit battles resume

There is plenty of upside in the broader value of the USD for reasons already set out. At this stage of the US cycle in post WW2 history we got used to the US economy slowing down a bit as the rest of the world caught up a bit (giving the USD some ...

Dollar approaches seven-month high, trade tensions limit gains

On the fundamental side USD has the best hand for 2018. Either the US economy will turn to out to be too strong (excess demand and higher short rates esp relative to others) or it will be a Goldilocks scenario (relatively cute) so expect a strong ...

As Fed jacks up rates, bond market warns of potential for economic weakness

On the fundamental side USD has the best hand for 2018. Either the US economy will turn to out to be too strong (excess demand and higher short rates esp relative to others) or it will be a Goldilocks scenario (relatively cute) so expect a strong ...

Fed-driven dollar rally fades, focus shifts to ECB meeting

At this stage it seems appropriate to take historical stock. The Brexit mess now apparent we can fairly put down to the vagueness of the referendum's wording. This error was also compounded by an inexplicable vagueness about rules for exit of the ...

Government avoids EU Withdrawal Bill defeat after last-ditch deal on 'meaningful vote'

Fed Funds Rate is over 300 points lower than normal (for this stage of the cycle) so rate hesitation suggests that normality is extremely elusive. World inflation is well contained though US risks are higher.

How this week could reignite the dollar-yen rally

More about Kim than North Korea and more about Trump than USA. Message to Iran: Nuclearise! Middle East tensions now set to rise more strongly.

Trump/Kim sign an accord, markets breathe a sigh of relief

USD strength is the central issue for the rest of this year.

Jerome Powell needs to answer one key question as the Fed prepares to raise rates again

Snake in the grass timing.

I am incredibly sad to have had to announce my resignation as a minister in Her Majesty’s...

NK achieved its goal of becoming a nuclear power and used that achievement as a lever, with China, to get something positive from the West. USA was outmanoevred here.

Trump, Kim shake hands to start historic summit in Singapore

Hidden

Trump delivers warning on trade as he leaves G-7 summit

Soft facts versus hard facts - this is Trump's incompetent agenda. WTO is there to police the trade rules but oh No we need an overarching US approval sticker. Trade deficits are not even relevant. And USA boasting lowest unemployment rate due to ...

Trump delivers warning on trade as he leaves G-7 summit

Yes. This is the bullish 2018 USD story which is coming to centre stage now.

Bernanke Says U.S. Economy Faces `Wile E. Coyote' Moment in 2020

Third time lucky. Really bad luck also has very low likelihood. Like going short CHF on Jan 15, 2015. Was it that long ago?

French man wins second lottery jackpot in less than two years

Either there is unity or there is not. The growing gray area between the two will continue to undermine and threaten the future of the union in whichever form survives. There are only a few adult members left of the EU of the size and status ...

Juncker: ‘Completing the EMU is more important than ever’

Booming is not a positive. Because the next phase is bust. Also if USA is doing so well why complain so much about trade? Why?

A 'dangerous' inflation trend is taking place in America and it could signal the economy is...

Painting a picture of big rally in USD. All upside risk. Sadly not a good outlook for 2019. Once you are in a bind with someone like Trump (populist yet incompetent) the failure ratio increases such as both higher interest rates and much higher USD. ...

4 Reasons Why The Market Is Completely Ignoring Escalating Trade Wars

He has the absolute right to pardon himself.

In Parting Interview, Bill Dudley Admits Why The Fed Got It All Wrong

June 12 sees the House of Commons debate the Lords 12 amendments and bring the PM's future again sharply into focus. GBP appears to be friendless again and so anything positive will have a magnified impact.

GBP/USD drops ahead of UK and US services data