Hi Honover, There is no Martingale! As SmoothTrader mentioned, that is because of the lot size resolution set by the broker. For example, if lot step size is 0.01, then there are situations that given a stop loss distance, it is not possible to ...

what can we do with 90% winrate?

Simulated ticks by the MT4 strategy tester represents some patterns in tick speeds, tick jumps, etc. which makes some newbie EA developers think that they had found holy grail. Edit: Here is a back test with real ticks downloaded from Dukascopy ...

what can we do with 90% winrate?

Totaly agree with you!

Renko Trading Discussion

Here is a trading idea based on HA Smoothed and Super Trend on Renko charts.

Renko Trading Discussion

In Version 1.1, I have already applied a filter to not trade if the body size of the previous daily candle is larger or smaller than two user specified thresholds (i.e., it won't trade after long momentum bars nor after doji's) I will backtest it ...

what can we do with 90% winrate?

Here is Version 1.10 of the EA that doesn't trade if the body size of the previous daily candle is less or greater than two user specified thresholds. image image file From two above backtests we can observe that a win rate of about 70% can be ...

what can we do with 90% winrate?

Thanks for your explanation! :-) And I think this additional condition is necessary to be implemented into the EA.

Engulfer

You are right! There are more complex stochastic processes than AR(p). However, I chose one of the simplest models to start this thread with.

Trade based on Autoregressive Model

Hi Khalil, I think it may be reasonable to prevent the EA from opening more than one trade per candle. What do you think?

Engulfer

Is this a M1 chart? I guess the price jumped at that long candle...

Engulfer

You can find the EA in Post 29. :-)

what can we do with 90% winrate?

Here is the first version of the EA I developed for this strategy. image file Some notes: - I backtested from 2000 to 2015. - The EA doesn't close a trade if it doesn't hit SL/TP at the end of the day. @Khalil: I don't know why we get different ...

what can we do with 90% winrate?

I developed a basic EA to test this idea. You can find it in Post 1. Here is a backtest result:

Renko Trading Discussion

You're welcome! :-) If you look at the trading algorithm, it won't trade if the time series of close prices (after removing the trend) is not stationary.

Trade based on Autoregressive Model

I have worked with R language a bit. It is a great programming language for statistics. However, an interface between MQL4 and R here doesn't seem to work in new version of MT4.

Trade based on Autoregressive Model

Walter seems to look for a big candle to follow...

Engulfer

Thanks for raising the point that I implicitly assumed in the calculation of the profit factor. As you mentioned, I assume that we risk a fixed money per trade by adjusting the lot size according to stop loss distance. Let's see how it works in a ...

what can we do with 90% winrate?

Tack så mycket för att dela det! Statistically speaking, the net expected profit factor for this system (assuming 90% win ratio and 0.33:1 Reward to Risk ratio) in long run would be (0.33*0.9)/(1.0*0.1) = 2.97 which seems to be a ...

what can we do with 90% winrate?

Hi Innate! Thanks for the link to the package! :-) I will see if it is easy to use Encog with MT4. To be honest, I do not trust MT5 platform. When I started using it for developing my strategies, I found a lot of bugs. It may be now more stable than ...

Trade based on Autoregressive Model

Hi PipMeUp, I updated Trading Algorithm with more details in Post 1. Hope it answers your questions and helps you duplicate the results. Best, Math

Trade based on Autoregressive Model