Instant gratification remains one of the shackles around the legs of real progress and we are still conditioned to think of the long term as next Tuesday. It is clear that the UK will not be a member of the EU (a new referendum idea pops up each day ...

Brexit’s Bewildering Endgame

The USA has been carrying out the biggest currency manipulation in history by controlling the supply side of the US money market. QE is the purchase by the FED of US Goverment Treasuries for USD and the current level of assets is USD2 trillion ...

US dollar slides again as Trump talks of currency manipulation

Its the FED's job to keep inflation from getting out of hand. Better to move forward in baby steps at the risk of having to move in giant steps later. This is ECON 101 which Powell will spell out again for the latecomers.

Trump Has Good Reason To Be Upset With The Fed

The president has stuck his nose in on the dovish side which gives Fed no option but be, however slightly, on the hawkish. That is aside from the increased threat of global slowdown caused by the president himself. The Fed is after all independent. ...

Emerging markets: I say a little Fed prayer

First point, USA is doing very well because the world outside USA accounts for over 80% of global growth. Second point, USA has played dirty for years and knows therefore the tricks of trade wars. Third point, China is the same size economy with 4 ...

A "Record Divergence": Why The Market Thinks The US Is The Absolute Trade War Winner

USD set to rise for remainder of year. Its a 2 edge sword in current circumstances. No major economy can escape surprise downside with USA best positioned to weather storm. Surprise upside will force FED to raise rates faster than anywhere else. Its ...

As the US dollar ticks higher again is the rally resuming?

NZ has gone ahead with banning non NZers from buying houses here. This is irrational, unsubstantiated, and Trump-like. This is the moral low ground because NZers enjoy property rights around the world incl China, Europe, North and South America, and ...

NZ dollar still languishing below 66 US cents

Not much has changed since July 9th: July 9th: So if nothing has changed the next leg is still.....down.

EURUSD Reaches Target Area at 1.1300; Where to Next?

Thank you so much for the conversation. 1. Whether or not you have been a recent winner versus the forex markets or not, it is always better to act on the basis that you were. Ask yourself then if you are prepared to risk your winnings of 20% of ...

UK labour market: August 2018

Tail risk is the very low risk of something happening which is extremely positive or extremely negative. Parents of attractive teenagers live with it daily. By definition 'it' is very unlikely to happen, 3 to 4 standard deviations away from the ...

Trade war is still the biggest ‘tail risk,’ say global fund managers

Forex traders and investors are getting very little of substance in the main media and of course there is no free access to free high quality analysis. A short checklist for me is 1. There will be no new referendum (people who use 'second' actually ...

UK labour market: August 2018

The EU has just been thru a moderate expansion phase which has helped to lower the unemployment rate to about 8% and a long way from full employment. US experience is that below 4% unemployment is not yet inflationary. And currently there are very ...

Ultraloose ECB Monetary Policy Signals Faster Tightening Ahead

Maybe, maybe not.

Do Import Tariffs Help Reduce Trade Deficits?

It could be artificial insemination. The wolf goes for money and sex and is still unsatisfied.

"A Bull Market Is Like Sex: It Feels Best Just Before It Ends..."

Another year of excessive spending while at full employment. In a healthy economy would be in surplus. With poor household savings and large fiscal deficit then small wonder the current account deficit is very large. USA must address its own ...

Monthly Treasury Statement

A solid idea is going long GBP versus CHF and getting paid for the priveledge, but with a one to two year horizon. Its sensible to have long horizons as well as short ones if you have the luxury of doing so, the patience and most of all the ...

Are You Pound-Proof Yet? The Brexit Endgame Is About to Begin

This article ignores, as many such articles do, the enormous savings gap within the US which drives the sheer scale of the current account deficit. And a widening fiscal deficit adds fuels to the fire (which is mentioned in the article). Clearly if ...

The Trump Administration’s Dead End on Trade

The NZ economy is, directly and indirectly, significantly affected by fake trade wars. This year follows on from sanctions imposed against Russia for example which redirected subsidised cheese and other dairy product mountains from Europe and USA to ...

Two Ways to Trade the New Zealand Dollar Tumble

In a world of blind investors the one eyed one is king. If it is a big crash please remember it was a USA lurch to the left and nothing else.

Rich Dad Poor Dad author Robert Kiyosaki warns ‘biggest crash’ is coming

An issue worth focussing is bulding a sizable bullish positiion on the GBP with a 1 to 2 year horizon. Most 1 to 2 year paper are less than 3% so the opportunity cost is very low for an unleveraged position and many pairs will offer much lower ...

UK still likely to leave the EU with a negotiated agreement, says Number 10