Sometimes it feels like commenting on such 'articles' is a big chore like putting out the weekly rubbish bin. The 1970s saw two gigantic increases in the price of oil (1974 prices increased by four times), which don't even rate a mention in the ...

Housing History And Why The Yield Curve Got So Flat

A snap election would not be good or bad but just kicking the can down the road. We live in a world full of business opportunity, the most unique and positive time in history, and therefore have the potential to raise human welfare across the board ...

Brexit is going very wrong, but a snap election is the last thing the British public needs

It was crystal clear last time. What would your 'new' referendum questions be?

Brexit is going very wrong, but a snap election is the last thing the British public needs

I agree with both of them. And also that it is not exactly clear what the EU wants. Currency traders are not exactly clear either. I am long GBP/CHF and want to be longer before its exactly clear. Earlier profits have given us the confidence to bet ...

Germany’s Merkel: Agreement About Brexit Could Come In October

The main flaw here is that QE represents government control over the supply side of the money market which was necessary because the global financial crisis of (2008 - ongoing) disrupted the money market so powerfully as to destroy its ability to ...

Vlieghe: The yield curve and QE

Its not a divorce at all but a member no longer wanting membership. Membership should not be permanent. Indeed, in the end, the world will be a single market so the EU will irrelevant in that and in some other respects. UK is just joining many other ...

May Dashes Hope for Brexit Deal, GBP Crashes

This is very bad news for the EUR. If this is how the core treats a powerful member of the EU which decides to leave, imagine how the less powerful are feeling right now. You can hear the anguish and the moving of deck chairs. In the immediate ...

May Dashes Hope for Brexit Deal, GBP Crashes

He's saying (I think) that the USD will strengthen very sharply.

Mohamed El-Erian isn't concerned about a global trade war but sees another major risk for the...

Markets are behaving like a teenager and just as responsive to good advice.

Risk on? Why not?

International trade is a source of growth momentum in the global economy so if you deliberately set out to kill it, and your economy, while big in absolute terms, represents only 17% of global growth then you are going to slow down like everyone ...

Fed has to start considering the risk of a recession, former Fed Gov. Larry Meyer says

Someone earlier this week said the economy was booming- journalistic hyperbole? Negative interest rates wiil continue in this glacial juggernaut of negligible growth momentum. The point about 2016 was a central bank deliberately lying to the markets ...

Swiss National Bank leaves expansionary monetary policy unchanged

The money market remains fragile as the GFC destroyed the myth of cash being low risk. The banks never took the blame for putting their depositors funds at grave risk so it has taken 10 years for us to progress to here. And wisdom suggests another ...

Looming Money-Market Shift Has Big Implications for Risk Assets

Statistical sample is way too small (at 10) to be able to draw statistical inference. In addition, the GFC wrecked the USA money markets which have yet to fully recover and the FED still controls the supply side of money (US dollars by the way = ...

Two years to the next US recession? That’s what the yield curve says

If there is any truth in the proposition that the USA President is the most powerful person on the planet then its a big worry that we have the wrong guy there. 10 years ago heralded in the biggest USA financial crisis in history which infected to a ...

Financial risks are resurfacing in post-global crisis era

A no-deal Brexit would weaken the EU considerably and perhaps even hasten its demise. Politically, the backlash in the UK against the EU (which is not headlined much) would likely be extremely powerful. While Christian attendance may have fallen ...

UK Finance Minister Hammond Says Our Economy Stands Fundamentally Strong

With Chinese gross assets around $200 trillion the problem is put into perspective especially with the commitment to economic reforms and the sheer momentum behind the growth in Chinese assets. There is always a problem with the institutional ...

China's Debt Bomb

Good luck predicting trade war outcome.

USD/CHF Oscillating Around 0.9700 Ahead of Next Week's SNB Meeting

Fiscal deficit is huge at a stage in the cycle when it ought to be in great surplus. Nothing here for Republicans nor FED to celebrate.

Fed’s Evans: US Econ Firing On All Cylinders 3 Pct To 3.5 Pct Fed Funds Rate Projected For...

As the world economy becomes more market oriented (once Trump has left) it would be nice to think that the vestigial traces of the Global Financial Crisis would be getting more and more faint. This is not what we are witnessing now - rather, we see ...

The ECB’s taper autopilot is still on

The main issue is that the neutral rate now is a lot lower than previously - by a few hundred basis points, for this stage of the economic cycle. A combination of factors probably explains the phenomenon (a long list of 'special' factors) but from ...

Fed Debate on Neutral Rate Misses the Bigger Picture