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EventsTrader commented Apr 26, 2024Hot report.
Rounded to 0.3%, Core PCE actually came out a little higher at 0.317%. Compounded that would be 3.87% y/y. Personal income saw an increase of $122.0 billion or 0.5%, and ...
Personal Income and Outlays, March 2024
- EventsTrader commented Apr 25, 2024
Yup. I agree we should see PCE tick up. The forecast (and prior) of 0.3% m/m is too high of a monthly value for the Fed to justify the narrative of inflation coming back down to 2%, at least anytime soon. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a hot ...
Gross Domestic Product, First Quarter 2024 (Advance Estimate)
- EventsTrader commented Apr 25, 2024
Big miss.
Growth in Real GDP in Q1 2024 is primarily due to increases in consumer spending, residential fixed investment, nonresidential fixed investment, and state and local government spending ...Gross Domestic Product, First Quarter 2024 (Advance Estimate)
- EventsTrader commented Apr 23, 2024
Aside from the downward Fed revision, much stronger than expected.
693K (seasonally adjusted annual rate) new houses sold in March represents an 8.8% month-over-month increase from the revised February rate of ...Monthly New Residential Sales, March 2024
- EventsTrader commented Apr 23, 2024
Very weak report.
Input prices continued to rise sharply, suggesting inflationary pressures persist. 
The Flash US Composite Output Index is at a four month low of 50.9, barely above the 50.0 ...US: Output growth slows amid signs of demand weakness
- EventsTrader commented Apr 16, 2024
Weak report.
There were 1,458,000 units authorized by building permits in March, which is 4.3% below the revised February rate There were 1,321,000 housing ...Monthly new residential construction, March 2024
- EventsTrader commented Apr 15, 2024
The US consumer remains strong.
Three largest gains and the three steepest drops m/m: Nonstore retailers experienced the largest increase with a 4.7% gain. Gasoline stations saw an ...US retail sales jumped 0.7% in March, much higher than expected
- EventsTrader commented Apr 11, 2024
Mixed bag, some cooling.
0.6% increase in final demand services. Final demand transportation and warehousing services moved up 0.3 percent and 0.8 percent, respectively. ...Producer Price Index - March 2024
- EventsTrader commented Apr 10, 2024
Dissent. Coming to a Fed near you. Last Friday, FOMC Gov Bowman said this: It is possible the Fed may have to hike again to cool inflation. Market is currently pricing in a Sept and Dec rate cut. Wishful thinking?
Consumer Price Index - March 2024
- EventsTrader commented Apr 10, 2024
Very hot.
Takeaways: CPI m/m was 0.378% and core CPI m/m was 0.359%. Both rounded up to 0.4%. Market was expecting low 0.3s. Core CPI y/y came in at 3.8% ...Consumer Price Index - March 2024
- EventsTrader commented Apr 5, 2024
Solid report signaling continued strength in the US labor market.
Significant job gains were noted in healthcare, government, and construction sectors. Government employment rose by 71,000, largely in local government. ...The Employment Situation -- March 2024
- EventsTrader commented Apr 3, 2024
Slightly weak report. Not as weak as the market reaction would lead you to believe. Compared with the manufacturing sector, while both sectors are growing, the rate of change in the services sector is slowing down compared to manufacturing, which is ...
US Services PMI at 51.4%; March 2024 Services ISM Report On Business
- EventsTrader commented Apr 3, 2024
Bostic, generally a dove, expects just one rate cut this year: url Lots of rebalancing will need to happen.
ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 184,000 Jobs in March;...
- EventsTrader commented Apr 3, 2024
100%. Higher oil prices haven't been baked into the inflation numbers yet. A tick up in inflation is coming and the writing is on the wall. Fedspeak has slowly been transitioning from rate cut 'this summer' to rate cut 'later this year'. Market is ...
ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 184,000 Jobs in March;...
- EventsTrader commented Apr 3, 2024
Strong employment data
Surprising gains not just in pay but also in the sectors that saw job increases. The leisure and hospitality sector showed the most significant growth, with 63,000 ...ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 184,000 Jobs in March;...
- EventsTrader commented Apr 1, 2024
Price pressures persist. Strong manufacturing report. Double whammy and both triggered big move in the USD. Key takeaways:
At 50.3 percent in March, an expansion after contracting for 16 consecutive months. An index above ...US Manufacturing PMI at 50.3%; March 2024 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business
- EventsTrader commented Mar 29, 2024
This was the best Powell speech/interview I've seen in a while. Said some things but traders weren't there to move markets. Sunday open
Monetary Policy Conference in San Francisco: Remarks with Jerome Powell and Kai Ryssdal
- EventsTrader commented Mar 29, 2024
I agree with this 100%.
Personal Income and Outlays, February 2024
- EventsTrader commented Mar 29, 2024
Inflation has come down drastically from the peak and while trending towards 2.0% PCE y/y ticked up from Jan to Feb. There's a lot of hope but not enough evidence yet to think we will get to 2% soon. In order to get to a 2.0% y/y, PCE m/m would have ...
Personal Income and Outlays, February 2024
- EventsTrader commented Mar 29, 2024
This report doesn't support earlier rate cuts. Here are the key takeaways:
The annual increase in the PCE price index points to sustained inflation over the past year. Consumer spending is increasing and personal income ...Personal Income and Outlays, February 2024