Submitted Jul 5, 2022|From blog.hycmlab.com|1 comment

Gold has been touted as a stagflationary asset, but gold has been falling steadily since March highs. The increasingly aggressive Fed rate hiking expectations and risk-off trading has kept the USD bid. Furthermore, the push higher in yields since ...

Submitted Jul 4, 2022|From blog.hycmlab.com

As we start the second half of 2022 investors remain focused on these major fears outlined in our previous article. However, the growing risk for the second half of 2022 is starting out to be over recession worries. The latest core PCE print from ...

Submitted Jun 28, 2022|From blog.hycmlab.com|1 comment

The Bank of England forecasts that growth would be negative for the UK in 2023 and KPMG projected that the UK could fall into a recession next year as inflation bites. Struggling post-Brexit the United Kingdom has a number of difficulties it has to ...

Submitted Jun 27, 2022|From blog.hycmlab.com

This video outlines the key factors that are currently pushing and pulling the gold market. By the time you finish this video, you will have a key understanding of the four major drivers that are influencing gold right now: inflation hedge, yields, ...

Submitted Jun 27, 2022|From blog.hycmlab.com

Pressure has increased for the BoJ for its mid-June meeting, but its policy remains unchanged. The Yen weakness has been pronounced this year as the yield differentials between the JGB’s and US treasuries have kept the JPY weak. Furthermore, the ...

Submitted Jun 24, 2022|From blog.hycmlab.com

One of the strongest months for silver is July. This in part mimics the strong pattern seen in July and August for gains in gold prices. One of the key reasons for silver’s current weakness has been the strong USD and the continual march higher in ...

Submitted Jun 24, 2022|From blog.hycmlab.com

Yes, and here are the reasons. Oil markets are sensing tensions around slowing global growth, an easing of the oil supply crunch, and an uncertain trajectory for China as it grapples with a Chine Covid zero policy. If global growth continues to slow ...

Submitted Jun 20, 2022|From blog.hycmlab.com

The BoJ has been expected to end its yield curve control for some time now as one of the only central banks to still maintain a very loose monetary policy. The SNB acted last week and surprised both Short Term Interest Rate Markets and Economists ...

Submitted Jun 16, 2022|From blog.hycmlab.com

Analysts see reasons for a very tight copper market over the coming years. This is in part due to the way that copper is mined. The mining process is costly and demand for copper is set to only grow due to electric vehicle demand. As the world moves ...

Submitted Jun 14, 2022|From blog.hycmlab.com

Last Friday markets were shocked by the latest inflation print showing that inflation in the US was continuing to track higher. Investors are now growing more and more concerned that inflation may be here to stay like it did in the 70s when ...

Submitted Jun 7, 2022|From blog.hycmlab.com

Crude oil has gained to start the week as Saudi Arabia demonstrated its confidence in oil demand with a larger than expected price increase in Asia. Saudi Aramco increased its prices to Asia for July by raising its light crude premium to $6.50 from ...

Submitted Jun 1, 2022|From blog.hycmlab.com|2 comments

The Bank of England was one of the first major banks to increase interest rates in order to deal with surging inflation. With inflation at 9% y/y the early action was clearly justified. The last central bank meeting saw a dovish hike. The bottom ...

Submitted May 23, 2022|From blog.hycmlab.com|1 comment

The UK economy is facing a cost of living crisis as higher taxation, higher goods prices, and the prospect of rising energy bills in the Autumn is weighing heavily on sentiment. The Bank of England revised growth for 2023 into negative territory in ...

Submitted May 19, 2022|From blog.hycmlab.com

One of the core principles in trading is to pair a weak currency with a strong currency. It is a way of increasing the odds of a clear direction. The AUDCAD pair is a good example of two countries at slightly different stages. These different stages ...

Submitted May 17, 2022|From blog.hycmlab.com

Gold has been touted as an inflation hedge and as a stagflationary play, so why are prices not soaring right now? You could be forgiven for asking this question as high inflation and slowing growth prints have been increasing over the last few ...

Submitted May 16, 2022|From blog.hycmlab.com|4 comments

It wasn’t the BoJ board that helped strengthen the JPY as they had been reluctant to act at the last BoJ meeting preferring to not intervene in FX markets. There is wisdom in that decision since it is very hard to manipulate currencies and many ...

Submitted May 13, 2022|From blog.hycmlab.com|2 comments

At the last RBA meeting, the Board decided to hike rates by 25 bps due to unexpectedly high inflation. Furthermore, Governor Lowe indicated that he expects further interest rate hikes over the coming months. See here for the analysis after the last ...

Submitted May 11, 2022|From blog.hycmlab.com

One of the key data points for US policy is set to be released on Wednesday 11 May at 13:30. That is the US inflation data. The headline is expected to come in at 8.1% y/y and the core reading at 6% y/y, but if we see a print below minimum ...

Submitted May 9, 2022|From blog.hycmlab.com

On Thursday last week, President Biden announced a plan to buy 60mln barrels of crude oil as the first step in a years-long process aimed at replenishing America’s shrinking emergency oil reserves. This is meant to extend beyond the filling of the ...

Submitted May 4, 2022|From blog.hycmlab.com

Over the last 15 years, the USD has seen strength at the start of May. However, tonight the Fed will meet and will want to hike interest rates in order to contain inflation which is at 8.5% in the US. One expectation is that we will see a ‘buy the ...