agree completely about momentum. 0 to do with indicators and everything to do with the fat tailed moves in a price distribution.

Where's The Edge?

I think I was misunderstood. Edge is present in the deviations from "normal". It's always there (if it's there at all). A simple example. In options, there is something called Implied Volatility and it's an input into option prices. The value of IV ...

Where's The Edge?

The math or an edge is anything you can measure that has a "stable" difference from what would be expected in a normal distribution. For example, in a coin toss, we have 2 possible outcomes. This means in a perfectly normal distribution, heads would ...

Where's The Edge?

Couldn't have said it better my self...

Where's The Edge?

This sounds a bit silly to me but I do enjoy the spirit of the post! The idea that there is no edge? I don't even think you believe that as your next post outlines it quite well. This is an edge right here. The idea or force behind the "deep follow ...

Where's The Edge?

Bingo! I completely agree with you on this. Except I wouldn't call them anomalies, but consistent deviations from the graph I posted earlier.

Where's The Edge?

I agree trading has a lot of similarities to poker, but there are some significant differences as well. The biggest difference being there is no bluffing in trading, and you are never heads up with one individual so you can't "read" any one ...

Where's The Edge?

I love your spirt and I love Bruce Lee! But I disagree. See point #2 in my reply to TimeTells. If the distribution EV adds up to 0... nothing can save you from inevitable convergence to 0.

Where's The Edge?

Hey TimeTells! Thanks for the question! It's the perfect question to ask! Yes, there is a hard mathematical reason it can not be in the trader alone. Any, not just that, but all edges will be present somewhere else. Let's look at some distributions ...

Where's The Edge?

A BB terminal would not provide an edge like this… Especially with forex. I think you could make a case for it boosting productivity when it comes to analyzing fundamentals of stocks/macros, but it doesn’t provide an edge in of itself.

Bloomberg Terminal

The key is to play with tiny size until you build a real strategy/approach that works and is validated. Doesn’t matter if you blow some $50 or $100 accounts every month or few weeks for years figuring it out. Once you have a strategy to works, you ...

When Should You Give Up On Trading?

Very interesting system! The numbers mentioned in the front are crazy good considering the ev of each setup is basically 100% of the risk taken. Example: (.5*3) - (.5*1) = 1 EV of 1 unit, risking 1 unit to make 3. Has anyone backtested to validate ...

Swing Trades using Price Action

What you are describing sounds more like pairs trading vs actual hedging. It sounds like you are trying to capture the difference between GBPAUD and GBPNZD so you are technically hedged on your GBP position. Tracking this spread would essentially ...

Hedging issues

I have been thinking a lot about correlations as they relate to hedging. The correlation co-efficient essentially being how close to perfect the pair acts as a hedge vs another. A perfectly hedged instrument would be a correlation of 1. What ...

Correlation + Momentum Strategy?

Anyone else looking long here? Going for 100 pips but have been getting crushed the last couple of days.

USD/JPY Discussion