Yes but this helps the bullish case for GBP enormously. Positive momentum will tend to silence criticism given referendum voted 51.9% in favor. No deal much less likely.

I have just sent to EU27 a draft Political Declaration on the Future Relationship between EU...

Agree. My numbers suggest May needs only 15% out of all of the other parties (and including her own rebels) (50 votes in total) assuming all non-rebel Tories vote with her (any why wouldn't they?). I included all the arithmetic in another post. ...

Juncker, May, Fail To Finalize Deal Over Brexit Terms

There is a richer framework which deals with the potential growth rate, the actual growth rate and the amount of spare capacity. Current circumstances suggest there could be spare capacity but a very small amount. Therefore, the FED should be ...

Hunting for the elusive “neutral” rate

image The chart shows combinations of short term US interest rates and the Broad TWI exchnage rate since 1992. The USD is gaining strength as the FED raises interest rates. Nothing new there except there is usually a point where the USA expansion ...

Fed officials' caution weakens dollar, sterling rebounds

We all now have knowledge of this tragic event so no news there. What we don't have is the reason why the victim was so much a threat (to whom?) to be assassinated by the Crown Prince staffers, cut up and buried in the Ambassador's garden? Let's ...

Trump says United States intends to remain steadfast partner of Saudi Arabia to ensure...

Oops. Its soaring again.

USD/CHF Looking Weak Below Parity

Interesting but no mention of the USD and no explanation for the big turnaround in expectations about USA's need for higher rates. Wasn't it only weeks ago that the US would carry on its momentum and higher rates were a shoo-in. What happened? Some ...

Eurodollar Futures: Powell May Figure It Out Sooner, He Won’t Have Any Other Choice

They need 48 and so are falling a bit short, using this tactic to try to winkle some more out. 48 would be 15% of all Conservative MPs according to the rules to get a 'no confidence' vote. Another way of putting it is then over 86% of Conservative ...

42 Tory MPs give assurances in letters to not support May: Sun

Trump is neatly painting USA into a corner. By slowing down the world economy very successfully with a raft of anti-business policies US exports and jobs will now slow as well. But US itself will slow to rate which stiil supports USD on a relative ...

Fed officials' caution weakens dollar, sterling rebounds

Yeah, Sean Hannity would have been closer to home. Jamal was a journalist for a US company. Sean is a journalist for a US company. There are very deep secrets in this attempted cover up. A Senior Adviser to the Crown Prince. How many does he have? ...

US sanctions 17 Saudis allegedly implicated in Khashoggi murder

Occasionally the potential upside of a situation warrants a bit more risk taking around a key event. As currency traders/investors we know this is a dangerous game on any day. There is a lot of opposition to the 'draft agreement' but the opposition ...

May’s Brexit deal does not mean its time to long the Pound

Why did Khashoggi risk his life for an official document? Don't they have mail? Why did they send 18 SA government people to deliver him to his death? (They knew he was coming) Why did the SAs want Khashoggi out of the way in this fashion? Then ...

Minister: "Two members of the Cabinet will resign today". Me: "Who?" Minister: "Penny Mordaunt...

Going long but with low confidence in short term. No place now for UK politicians to hide after Barnier speech. Feels like beginning of new phase but rebel Tories don't seem to have the numbers, the ideas, nor the leader to win this week's ...

Senior Tory tells me Brexiteer anger so high that seems likely there will be a call for no...

Trump silent on fake news out of Saudi Arabia. Really holding the Prince to full account over murder of US resident and cover up. Really patriotic president getting to the real truth. Fox news one-eyed and useless as a news channel, embarrassing to ...

Hopefully, Saudi Arabia and OPEC will not be cutting oil production. Oil prices should be much...

Agree. Major point though is that USA policies are causing economic slowdown outside USA when the growth gap already favours USD. Next year will be painful for USD but from a much higher level. USA policies will make US economy really wince again. ...

Don’t be Fooled by the Pullback in the Dollar

Battle hardened but under attack from within party and without (and that's just the UK) it is clear that Theresa May has very little to lose. For investors this is an important point because she means that any bluffs are about to be called - a ...

Brexit talks are nearing their endgame, May says

We have been talking about it all year.

There's something behind this market sell-off that no one is talking about: The strong dollar

As the murder of Khashoggi drifts further back in the news its more difficult to fit in a comment. I have not read anywhere speculation about why K went so innocently to his assassination? Either he underestimated the degree of threat he was to ...

Saudi Arabia to Cut Oil Exports Amid Signs of New Surplus

WTO has 164 member countries, and trade in goods and services embraces thousands of distinct products (final, intermediate, raw materials), distinct services (online, face to face, embodied, disembodied, electronic, energy, transport, insurance and ...

Protectionism Was Threatening Global Supply Chains before Trump

On TWI basis USD has 20% upside in current circumstances. Sure next year could be awful for USD but all of the arguments today combine towards short term bullish. This cycle has unique features - for the USA and for the world as a whole.

Buy ‘Cheap’ Yen Before Its Big Awakening in 2019, SocGen Says