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EventsTrader commented Jun 7, 2024Very strong.
Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 14 cents to $34.91, marking a 4.1% increase over the past 12 months. This indicates positive wage growth, which can ...
The US Employment Situation -- May 2024
- EventsTrader commented May 30, 2024
Although the headline number beat expectations, I'm not seeing any obvious strengths. Some sharp decreases in corporate profits.
PCE price index increased by 3.3%, excluding food and energy it rose by 3.6%. Price index for ...US Gross Domestic Product, First Quarter 2024 (Second Estimate) and Corporate Profits...
- EventsTrader commented May 23, 2024
Very strong report.
Both manufacturing and services sectors showed higher optimism regarding future output, linked to expansion plans, new products, and increased marketing. However, concerns about inflation, interest rates, and ...US output grows at fastest rate for over two years in May
- EventsTrader commented May 22, 2024
The forecast seemed a little lost so it's not a huge surprise it beat by 0.2%.
The largest upward contribution came from motor fuels. Core CPIH y/y (excluding energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco) ...Consumer price inflation, UK: April 2024
- EventsTrader commented May 15, 2024
The market is currently pricing in Sept and Dec rate cuts. The latest comments from Fed officials has been if weakness comes into the labor market they'd think about cutting rates. We haven't seen that weakness yet. It might come we'll have to see. ...
Consumer Price Index - April 2024
- EventsTrader commented May 15, 2024
Inflation is not coming down to 2% anytime soon, no matter what the narrative or FedSpeak is. Taking these low readings from this report, on an annualized basis that would only get us to a Core CPI 3.57% y/y and CPI 3.83% y/y. Oil and shelter prices ...
Consumer Price Index - April 2024
- EventsTrader commented May 15, 2024
Nothing really shocking in this report. It was basically in line with expectations. The miss on overall CPI m/m was 0.313% vs 0.37 expected. Not as big of a miss as meets the eye. Core CPI to three decimals was 0.292% vs 0.3% expected. Annual ...
Consumer Price Index - April 2024
- EventsTrader commented May 14, 2024
Core CPI forecasts are pretty aligned at 0.3%. Overall CPI is tilted towards lower than 0.4%. One decimal can be deceiving. The average forecast via Bloomberg is 0.37%. Anything other than 0.3% in the core number will move markets. Overall CPI above ...
Producer Price Index - April 2024
- EventsTrader commented May 14, 2024
Hot
but maybe not as hot as the data suggest. PPI at 2.2% y/y. Core PPI at 2.4%. PPI less food, energy, and trade is most notable at 3.1% y/y up from 2.8%. In April crude was high and we might be seeing that factored in but markets aren't ...Producer Price Index - April 2024
- EventsTrader commented May 9, 2024
In this case going up is not a good thing for the USD and the market is reacting to the weak data. Initial claims rose to 231,000, up by 22,000 from the previous week’s revised level. ...Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report
- EventsTrader commented May 3, 2024
Agreed. Giving fuel to this correction/USD comeback.
US Services PMI at 49.4%; April 2024 Services ISM Report On Business
- EventsTrader commented May 3, 2024
No. I think this move is the aftermath of NFP. Overreaction, and now coming back down to earth. If it were flight to safety, the stock market would be coming down more than it is right now.
US Services PMI at 49.4%; April 2024 Services ISM Report On Business
- EventsTrader commented May 3, 2024
Very weak report with persistent price pressures.
Business Activity Index, at 50.9%, indicates that services sector activity is still expanding, albeit at a slower pace. This suggests that while growth has decelerated, the ...US Services PMI at 49.4%; April 2024 Services ISM Report On Business
- EventsTrader commented May 3, 2024
On the weaker side. I'd expect the market to bring up rate cut expectations a little earlier than previously thought. Only one report though.
Notable gains occurred in health care, social assistance, and transportation and ...The Employment Situation -- April 2024
- EventsTrader commented May 1, 2024
I see a report a little weaker than the market interpreted.
8.49 million job openings, a slight decrease compared to February 2024. This level indicates a relatively strong labor demand but shows a ...Job Openings and Labor Turnover – March 2024
- EventsTrader commented May 1, 2024
Weak but significant price pressures persist.
Prices Index increased significantly to 60.9 percent, up from 55.8 percent, which could signal rising input costs for manufacturers. It could squeeze profit margins if not ...US Manufacturing PMI at 49.2%; April 2024 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business
- EventsTrader commented May 1, 2024
Strong.
Goods-producing: +47,000 jobs. Service-providing: +145,000 jobs. Notable increases were in Leisure/Hospitality (+56,000) and Professional/Business ...ADP: Private Sector Employment Increased by 192,000 Jobs in April; Annual Pay was Up 5.0%
- EventsTrader commented Apr 30, 2024
I wouldn't say we're experiencing a wage spiral. The thing the Fed is most afraid of. But it doesn't look like the Fed can't bring down inflation further (from the levels we're at), at least anytime soon. There's no justification for the rate cut ...
Employment Cost Index – March 2024
- EventsTrader commented Apr 30, 2024
Hot
Compensation costs increasing across all categories. The real increases, although smaller due to inflation adjustments, indicate that wage growth is slightly outpacing inflation, particularly for state and local ...Employment Cost Index – March 2024