I looked at USD/CHF trying to spot the differences between periods. It seems that system performs "well" in bullish trends, wery well in bearish and fails if the market is undecided - last 3,5 - 4 months (60-80 trading days). try this system on ...

Is this a Successful System?

Sorry for my English. 1. number of trades - on different graphs there is different number of trades, is that OK? 2. On the attached graph I see five different periods. 1 - all seems ok, stable growth of equity, at 364 - drawdown but short and I ...

Is this a Successful System?

Hi I have two questions to these reports and graphs 1. for different VAR there is nonequal amount of market entries - this may mislead. 2. look at the peak at the right side of the graphs, this sugegsts that this system works good in certain ...

Is this a Successful System?

info about options, stops is available before, the proof could be in finding exact correlations between news and price moves but it is useless (i suspect) as this will only prove observational experience. i watched the effect of info in order board ...

Order Flow

in theory exporters hedging their profits, large corporate accounts, long term traders (position traders) on interbank market via your broker. in practice - probably your broker or his other client going long at this time... todays cables's rally ...

why does cable reverse almost every day

Imho in forex to a certain extent you can "beat the house" by increasing probablility of winning, in casino it's impossible. They have strict rules and policies to filter out professional gamblers. I like think about FX as a gambling but probably we ...

1:400 + fixed spread + news trading

Hi Sometimes in fact it reverses. The reason is that NY session starts at this time. So usually at 12 or 13 and later cable slows down, consolidates waiting for NY open. Look at daily news list,fibos, support and resistance lines in order to foresee ...

why does cable reverse almost every day

you can export historical data (candles - OHLC) from metatrader (from for example Fibo Group) then you can put it in excel and plot graphs or write formulas in spreadsheet. I do not know exactly - MT has a 30 min data back to January 2005 (?). ...

Backtesting?

very close!

new idea trading

Thanks for your answer - I'm actually interested in systems with flexible VAR and as I understand the key here is a good method of "predicting" the next day's move. Please if you can - describe briefly your metod of calculating TP. I can backtest it ...

Risk Reward Ratio and Account Risk

Thank you Rusty for this very enlightening thread! You said that traders meditate before session - could you describe the method? What are the main expected benefits of meditation? THANKS!!!

MarketMakers

Thank you for your answers! The concept of probability comes from empirical results. If a coin is symmetrical you have 50:50 chance (large sample of tosses) but if it is not you can have 70(head):30 (tail) (large sample of tosses) for example. So ...

Risk Reward Ratio and Account Risk

When you trade for clients or have a large account the primary goal is not "exponential growth" but preservation of capital commonly understood as a secure and stable growth. 50% probability you have in tossing a coin. when you test the predictive ...

Risk Reward Ratio and Account Risk

TESTING RRR 1 Testing predictive power of RRR is easy - in first column A (excel) put +1 if RRR predicts up and -1 if down. In second - B actual outcome =1 if up, -1 if down. Use logical function IF(A=B;1;0) Sum it up over series of trades and ...

Risk Reward Ratio and Account Risk

I finally understood your post , forgive me straightforwardness as I’m still having problems with my English. Here is a main problem I spotted: “This method reduces the lot size when the loss size increases and increases the lot size when the ...

Risk Reward Ratio and Account Risk

Hi, i beileve, it will do (if you wish) if you post one post per day with global outcome, as most of the time it is common that markets are trending in one direction. as I saw you are using macd, bollinger and ema, thats powerful composition, there ...

forex trading technique

what a nice sentence! hedging in my opinion is undervalued and underused Lots of pips to all...

forex trading technique

are you still in profit? I started this morning in red and currently market conditions are reversing. Thats good.. If the opposite happens, thats not bad.

forex trading technique

GBP/USD is gooood.... If every your trade is profitable... there we have two possibilities: 1. you have a good reliable system and small amount of trades 2. you have an average system and small amount of trades by "small amount" i understand - ...

forex trading technique

IMHO amount on account matters less than stable gains every day, as through power of compounding you can easily=steadily double, triple, quadruple,etc your account. in my analyses i found that sometimes high success rate is due to "specific ...

forex trading technique