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      Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee
      Submitted May 20, 2026      |From federalreserve.gov|21 comments

      The manager turned first to an overview of market developments during the intermeeting period. The conflict in the Middle East had continued to be a key factor driving asset price movements. Equity prices had more than reversed their earlier declines, while 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields rose a bit further over the intermeeting period, as did near-term inflation compensation. In foreign exchange markets, the U.S. dollar retraced some of its previous appreciation. The manager observed that the crude oil futures curve was higher than the curve prevailing at the time of the March FOMC meeting. The curve remained steeply downward sloping, consistent with investor expectations of oil prices falling considerably in coming months. The manager noted, however, that the curve's forecasting record was mixed. Next, the manager discussed the recent behavior of inflation expectations. Near-term inflation expectations, as reported in the Open Market Desk Survey of Market Expectations (Desk survey), had again moved up, though expectations for 2027 and beyond were little changed. The survey results and market-based measures of inflation compensation pointed to longer-term expectations remaining well anchored near the Committee's 2 percent longer-run inflation objective. On monetary policy expectations, the manager noted that market-implied expectations still indicated that market participants anticipated little change this year in the target range for the federal funds rate, and options prices implied around a 30 percent probability of a rate hike by the first quarter of 2027. In the Desk survey, the median of the modal paths continued to show two 25 basis point rate reductions over the next year, but respondents now expected them to occur later than in the previous survey, with rate cuts expected in the third or fourth quarter of 2026 and the first quarter of 2027. Nominal Treasury yields had risen modestly further over the intermeeting period. A model-based decomposition of changes suggested that the increase in the two-year nominal yield since the start of the conflict in the Middle East reflected a sizable increase in expected inflation, offset to some degree by a decline in the expected real interest rate, a combination consistent with the realization of an adverse supply shock. A decomposition of the 10-year yield suggested a much smaller increase in expected inflation, alongside an increase in risk premiums. Liquidity conditions in Treasury securities markets had remained favorable even at times of increased volatility. The manager next considered equity market developments. Perceived de-escalation in the Middle East conflict boosted risk sentiment over the intermeeting period, but equity price increases had also been underpinned by strong earnings expectations. After underperforming earlier in 2026, technology-sector stocks recorded the strongest price gains over the period. *FED: MANY PREFERRED REMOVING EASING BIAS FROM STATEMENT *FED: MAJORITY SAW HIKE LIKELY WARRANTED IF INFLATION PERSISTS *FED: SOME WERE CONCERNED INFLATION EXPECTATIONS COULD DE-ANCHOR FED MINUTES: OFFICIALS GENERALLY JUDGED RATE PAUSE WILL EXTEND LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT Fed Minutes: Several participants indicated rate cuts would be warranted later this year in a scenario in which conflict was resolved soon, and inflation pressures dissipated. Fed Minutes: Some participants were concerned about a scenario in which elevated energy prices and tariffs could result in inflation pressures becoming embedded more broadly.

      Iran Foreign Ministry: We are negotiating in good faith, and it is up to the American side to...
      Submitted May 20, 2026      |From @LiveSquawk|10 comments

      Iran Foreign Ministry: We are negotiating in good faith, and it is up to the American side to prove its seriousness in the negotiations. IRAN'S FOREIGN MINISTRY SPOKESPERSON SAYS EXCHANGE OF MESSAGES BETWEEN IRANIAN, U.S. SIDES CONTINUES BASED ON IRAN'S 14-POINT PROPOSAL - IRANIAN MEDIA U.S. HAS TO PROVE ITS GOODWILL AND END 'PIRACY' AGAINST IRANIAN SHIPS - IRANIAN FOREIGN MINISTRY SPOKESPERSON TELLS STATE TV Iranian Foreign Ministry: Tehran has demanded that the United States release Iranian assets

      When can we expect the gold rally to return?
      Submitted May 20, 2026      |From kitco.com

      The gold rush that started late last year looks exhausted. Since the U.S. operation in Iran, the precious metal has lost around 15% and continues to slide amid fears of another inflation wave driven by disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Although ...

      Trump: Fantastic economic numbers yesterday
      Submitted May 20, 2026      |From @financialjuice|18 comments

      Trump: Fantastic economic numbers yesterday. Trump doesn't specify when talking with Taiwan would happen. US President Trump: Netanyahu Will Do Whatever I Want Him To Do TRUMP ON IRAN: WE'RE GOING TO GIVE THIS ONE SHOT, AM IN NO HURRY TRUMP: WE NEED TO REOPEN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ

      BoE Breeden: I have seen tightening in financial conditions
      Submitted May 20, 2026      |From @financialjuice

      BoE Breeden: I have seen tightening in financial conditions. BoE Breeden: Policy is tightened from an already restrictive place. BoE Breeden: If it does look like we are moving to a prolonged Middle East conflict with pronounced 2nd round effects, we will need to move quickly and possibly forcefully.