bit surprised to see this thread resurrected - I thought that the Vegas stuff was a scam.

Vegas Wealth Builder - Part I

The CME required margin for ES is $5625 - current contract face value is $55,000 (1100 * 50) so the leverage is approx 10:1. 1 ES point = $50 so if you are fully margined 1 point = 1% of your account. Average daily range is around 15 points so you ...

Thoughts on 50:1 Leverage

1 - most technical analysis is rubbish (patterns,indicators,candlesticks) ie no better than random and certainly not a big enough edge to be tradeable in the long run. you will notice that most TA is presented without any statistical back-up just a ...

No more BS - What have you learned?

50/50 games — A quick pop quiz about randomness You and your rich friend (Mr Market) are playing a coin tossing game with a fair coin. If its heads Mr Market gives you $1 if its tails you give Mr Market $1. You have $2 in your coin tossing ...

The Winning Trading Psychology - sure way for consistent profits

No they are not the same thing at all. Having a bike and being able to ride a bike are not the same thing. Someone earlier in the thread described it as system-MM-psychology as a ring. That is not the right way to think about it. Instead think of a ...

The Winning Trading Psychology - sure way for consistent profits

I don't want to be so critical of a post but 90% of that post was nonsense. Good psychology won't transform a losing system into a winning system - it just means you'll lose money slower. Psychology cannot be your edge. If you believe this then ...

The Winning Trading Psychology - sure way for consistent profits

Piggleop - why don't you write your entry price, stop and target (if you have one) in the post, rather than scrawl it on the chart (does your charting package not have a text tool?). Looking at CAD - I can see 3 potential areas for long entries, if ...

Piggleop's Pics of my trades - feedback welcome

Yes it is - but saying you need the right psychology to be a successful trader is not specific enough to help anyone. To be a trader it all boils down to - a profitable strategy and the self-disciplne to follow that strategy. There are many threads ...

The Winning Trading Psychology - sure way for consistent profits

On a longer timeframe chart M15 and above, I'd agree with that statement but on an M1 chart a 5 tick wick is just noise. How many people get trapped in a 5 tick wick and need to close? I doubt it is a significant number.

Candles are arbitrary

Well here's my point of view - there is no psychology of trading. No one talks about the psychology of driving a car. They just get on with learning to drive a car. Being a profitable trader is a skill that can be learnt and does not require some ...

The Winning Trading Psychology - sure way for consistent profits

remember that most books show daily candlestick charts on things like stocks or pit traded futures which have a definite open and close time. In these cases the open and close price and therefore the candle body and wick are important. But in 24 ...

Candles are arbitrary

I tend to think that for a day trader to average 0.5% a day is good. $50 on a 10K account may not sound much but over a year that is still 100%+ return. In practice that would be something like making $200 one day and losing $100 the next giving you ...

Realistic Account Growth?

Bodies and wicks are equally useless. Candle open time and close time are just arbitrary points in time. Imagine 60min candles - why is the price at 2:00 more important than that at 2:15? (Obviously sometimes it is because of news but you get the ...

Candles are arbitrary

Buying break-outs from consolidations in a trend is a common tactic in trading. I would say that it is the single best way to trade regardless of time frame. As long as the trend is strong the actual entry method is not that important. What really ...

The DIBS Method... No Free Lunch continues

Filtering — I'm not generally in favour of filtering DIBs, although I keep an open mind about it. Here's an example from Thursday's Dubai inspired risk asset sell-off/USD rally. The chart is EUR and there were two DIBs formed in the same ...

The DIBS Method... No Free Lunch continues

I doubt it. An IB indicates some kind of sideways price action. I doubt the hourly close has any predicitive power. Occasionally the price action on an H1 IB, when viewed on an M5 chart, might suggest what is going to happen but most of the time its ...

The DIBS Method... No Free Lunch continues

ok - maybe came over as too negative. Peter didn't talk about entries other than DIBS. I was making a more general point that adding to winning positions in a trending market is the key to large gains. The method you use to decide when to add is up ...

The DIBS Method... No Free Lunch continues

I think you are making some (unfortunately) common mistakes with back testing. 1 - USD is in a bear market for structural reasons - any strategy that goes long EUR is going to look good over this time period if it just holds on. In fact the ...

The DIBS Method... No Free Lunch continues

Here's an example from today. The two charts are both the same time period. The top is the Canadian $ (note this is the future and is quoted CAD/USD not USD/CAD as the cash market is) and the bottom GBP. On both charts, down means USD is ...

Why a chart pattern fails?

Well you have to have something to do while you wait for the next DIB to form. G/U - looks a valid DIB for a long break-out. I don't like it because the break-out is 1.6690 and Wednesdays lows are 1.6710 which is the first obvious resistance. But ...

The DIBS Method... No Free Lunch continues