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raklian commented Sep 24, 2017No, USD will go down since a tax cut means greater deficits.
Trump, GOP to cut top rate to 35 percent
- raklian replied Sep 22, 2017
I agree with most of what you said but my point has nothing to do whether the market is random or not. Even if there is a strong trend, the next price tick has nothing, absolutely nothing, to do with the price ticks that occurred earlier in the ...
Higher Edge within a Single Candlestick
- raklian replied Sep 22, 2017
The primary reason CAD is bullish compared to the USD is that BoC has portrayed an interest rate hike path with a trajectory slope that's higher than that of the FED Reserve's forecast of its own interest rate hikes. Of course, it's all in the short ...
USD/CAD
- raklian replied Sep 22, 2017
Like there is no past and future, there is no edge when it comes to predicting what the market will do next. We simply put in a trade and the market, like some supernatural force, decides whether to taketh or giventh at a whim. That's about it. ...
Higher Edge within a Single Candlestick
- raklian replied Sep 22, 2017
If North Korea does detonate a hydrogen bomb in the Pacific Ocean, short USD immediately.
USD/JPY Discussion
- raklian commented Sep 21, 2017
Yep, correct analysis. The USD still has some ways to go down.
USD: Fade The Fed; Good Level To Sell USD/CAD - TD
- raklian commented Sep 21, 2017
Guest, you're not considering the fact 5 positions at the FED are up for replacement soon. That will potentially change the calculus of future interest rate hikes.
Fed: dovish long-term - Deutsche Bank
- raklian commented Sep 21, 2017
Euro has yet to revert to the mean, so long in the long term.
Draghi: Building on the achievements of post-crisis reforms
- raklian commented Sep 21, 2017
So in summary, bear markets happen when they happen.
The Coming Bear Market?
- raklian commented Sep 21, 2017
It's still a bull trap... albeit a very slow one. Usually they come in the form of a spike and then a drop but not this one. It's more insidious. I'll reiterate this - nothing has changed in terms of US fundamentals. Heck the announcement by the FED ...
FOMC Press Conference
- raklian replied Sep 21, 2017
It's just like with any business, a great product or service that people want to pay for OR a great trading system with positive expectancy, will keep it afloat. If you don't have that, then a business will only last so long.
I trade my own account for a living. Tell your story
- raklian commented Sep 21, 2017
Ab, for several reasons, the state of the US economy isn't as rosy as you think it is. We're in a deflationary environment thanks to Amazon, Inc. and the like.
Investors Remain Unconvinced By Fed Projections
- raklian commented Sep 21, 2017
FED is basically gambling on the premise that despite the economic headwinds we're seeing, like the moderating CPI readings, inflation will still increase to 2% and beyond. They're not considering the power of Amazon, Inc. to reduce overall retail ...
The US economy and the Fed seem to be moving in opposite directions — and it can't last
- raklian commented Sep 20, 2017
The whole spike up in the dollar was a gigantic bull trap. I wonder how many traders were caught in that.
FOMC Press Conference
- raklian replied Sep 20, 2017
When it gets close to 1.2400, it's a good selling opportunity. The FED dot plot is actually a little more dovish than before.
USD/CAD
- raklian commented Sep 20, 2017
To those who say a balance sheet tightening is equally impactful as a rate hike, it all depends on demand/supply factors for the US treasuries and mortgages that the FED plans to sell. If there is not enough demand, for sure the rates will go up. ...
A Fed hike is coming in December, according to a CNBC survey, whether the market believes it...
- raklian commented Sep 19, 2017
Namli, balance sheet reduction is not necessarily as important as a rate hike. If the FED chooses to reduce its balance sheet at a lower rate than expected, it will either do nothing for the dollar or have an adverse effect on it.
A Fed hike is coming in December, according to a CNBC survey, whether the market believes it...
- raklian commented Sep 19, 2017
^ Nothing. Everyone is anticipating for what comes out of tomorrow's FOMC.
Trump: If Attacked, Would Have No Choice But To Destroy N. Korea
- raklian replied Sep 18, 2017
If you look at the monthly chart, the downward trajectory still shows strong momentum. There probably will be a correction, say to 1.2400, but the downward movement will resume. It can easily go down to 1.15.
USD/CAD
- raklian commented Sep 17, 2017
Mohammad, the balance sheet shrinking is already priced in. The key thing to pay attention is what the FED will say how they will move forward from this point on. Anything they say that is unexpected will have a material impact on the US dollar.
The Fed is getting ready for its ‘biggest meeting of the year’