This strategy would require some work. Testing with max drawn down for a money strategy, a loss late, could wipe you out. Probably the two rules would be keep your account size small, and never go against the main trend. A couple of things I noticed ...

Important – Why systems are profitable (or not)

Not to be a stickler for scientific method, but you cannot prove that something does not work, you can only provide evidence to support a hypothesis. In order to "prove" that something doesn't exist, you'd have to test an infinate number of cases, ...

Important – Why systems are profitable (or not)

David, Thanks for introducing me to this thread. The first system I tested performed best when the stop loss was around 400 pips for EUR/USD. I found other pairs had other optimal stop losses. When I started testing this I was told by other traders ...

Important – Why systems are profitable (or not)

Sure, that's why MA crossovers don't work. I have a breakout that trades better as an inverted trade though. Not profitable yet, but I've found when it indicates a long go short. Probably more related to support and resistance than a breakout. Dan

New Guy and Exits

Opps. That's why your the math geek. Software people like me tend to fill in the blanks and occassionally get it wrong. I'll try it with an absolute correlation measure. Thanks. Someday I hope to be too busy deciding how to spend my money Dan

Caution: Math Geek at Work

Thanks! The results are listed below. Base condition was 25 Pip TP/SL with 4 hour timed exit using over 1.5 years worth of 15 minute candlesticks. In subsequent tests I ran with a COV using 5, 10, 20 and 50 correlation points. I then add a condition ...

Caution: Math Geek at Work

First thing I think of when I see a win/loss of less than 40% is can I invert the trade. Dan

New Guy and Exits

David, Ya I know the sample is to small. Also, it is out of wack with my backtesting which had smaller profits, but bigger win/loss ratio. I just wanted to post the results of what I'm doing, for discussion. As for trailing stops, the raw ones ...

New Guy and Exits

Week 1 — This weeks testing, where my emphasis is on the exit and money management. Total Trades: 41 Winning Trades: 21 Losing Trade: 18 Total Lots Trade: 149 Per Win Trade: $115.85 Per Losing trade: $64.45 Starting Account Balance: $7,504.00 ...

New Guy and Exits

If I was working this problem full time, I'd be looking into an AI predicting direction based upon parsing news feeds for predictors of price movements. There was a very promising paper written on this approach from the Penn/Lehman project. But, I ...

Caution: Math Geek at Work

Interesting comments. My assumption going into this was that the correlations between pairs were transitory on the scale I chose. For example if you look at USD/JPY and GBP/JPY over the one year period the trends are very similar, with divergence at ...

Caution: Math Geek at Work

There are a number of traders who claim the NN gives them an edge. Working in the Software industry, all my AI savy coherts say they can't see how. And I can tell you I found no success. There are a couple of approaches highly recommended by these ...

Caution: Math Geek at Work

Another thing... — One other idea I wanted to run by you is the correlation of pairs. I've been looking into this for some time and have a technique that seems to work, but could probably be improved on. When I get a signal, that it is time to ...

Caution: Math Geek at Work

The above mentioned algorithm was produced for EUR/USD. I can post the rest for each pair if you like. As with any testing the results are only as good as the experiment. With the genetic program, I'm using it has settable limits on the number of ...

Caution: Math Geek at Work

Been there done that. Raw data doesn't seem to do much good. There are an infinate number of combination with math operators and 20 numbers. If I give it a little help it does better. Below is the output for a candle pattern test on EUR/USD with a ...

Caution: Math Geek at Work

That is the kind of GP I'm doing. I've tested with the GP evolving tech indicators and candle patterns. The Candle patterns are based currently on the last 5 bars, include high, low, close, open and a charaterization of each, such as upper shadow, ...

Caution: Math Geek at Work

I've actually tested using equal distance from 1 ATR, 2 ATR and lots of ATRs, with no better results, however I do use ATR in my dynamic exit to caluculate the starting place for my staring SL/TP levels. The idea is then to ratchet the levels in on ...

New Guy and Exits

Phil, I'm just running simulations and exiting on an equal distant point. But since you're so insistent here are the results. The tests are run with 21 pairs, approximately one years worth of data. This was against a 9/20 EMA entry system. 1. Time ...

New Guy and Exits

Scott, I really find your analysis insightful. I started at your web site which led me to this forum. I was running out of ideas and now I'm full of them again. Anyway, your approach to pattern analysis is very good. I read in one of your posts, ...

Caution: Math Geek at Work

I haven't read all the way through this thread, but the first few pages got me thinking about some pattern analysis tests I ran a while back. Looking back there were a number of patterns my Genetic program Identified similar to what is identified in ...

james16 Chart Thread