As USA and UK have shown clearly elections do not deliver stability but they do deliver a democratic outcome. The outcomes range across the spectrum and more rich than Left or Right a la Fox news. Acceptance of both political plurality and democracy ...

Italy: Explaining the Chaos

Any trader still surviving must be doing something correctly other than black magic, luck, pure tech or pure fund. Forex is cash in many forms and must be analysed for what it is. The science of trading forex is the flat plate filled with water and ...

US Pres Trump: China’s Xi Is A Great Leader, Welcomes His Desire For A Deal And For Calm

When countries ignore the basic tenets of economics (macro and micro) then the outcomes are all too predictable - lost opportunities in productivity, development, living standards and national progress. There is no mystery here.

Japanification of America

Talk does not cook rice.

US Pres Trump: China’s Xi Is A Great Leader, Welcomes His Desire For A Deal And For Calm

Interesting but incomplete. When was the big inflation scare which always precedes a recession? There was caution but no evidence at all that the FED had a big fight on its hands. No the missing element remains the outlook for inflation if we are ...

"We Are Not Mid-Cycle, Or Even Late Cycle, But Rather End Of Cycle"

Vote coming up for Congressional approval of renewal of NAFTA (a rose by any other name) will test this administration's delivery of success. So far zippo.

Trump in talks with Abe says "very big" trade deal with Japan close

Naughty boys. As for the article. The core of it is that UK supports free trade and USA does not. USA supports superpower force trade "America comes first, or else". EU also seems to want to belong to a big power club of three and with force get ...

Boris Johnson warns Trump US must compromise to get UK trade deal

USA has done all of the above and ignores the momentum behind international attempts to reach a consensus to deal with them. You can't handle the truth.

Powerful, obscure law is basis for Trump 'order' on trade

World heading for deflation, does not need recession as well. Pull up. Pull up.

Trade and economy in focus as G7 leaders get down to work

Nothing new here. Only question is May's deal able to tweaked or not? Otherwise stalemate continues.

Brexit: UK won't owe £39bn under no deal, Boris Johnson to tell EU's Tusk

Protectionism is a losing script for USA. Endgame now ticking. Still bullish on USD on cyclical grounds.

Powerful, obscure law is basis for Trump 'order' on trade

Or rwong

Carney Urges Libra-Like Reserve Currency to End US Dollar Dominance

Why isolate China for spying toasters? 5G is alive already in USA isn't it? So watch out for US Micro waves. These gaps in logic taint the whole message mate and underline the xenophobia which is the central issue. USA is not the greatest country - ...

The Anatomy of the Coming Recession

Many air craft crash investigations conclude that the plane was OK but the instruments were faulty. I think what is faulty here is the reading of inflation pressure - being not only zero but less than zero already. But the latter is also due to US ...

We Don’t Need a Broad Consensus

No mention of deflation having a role. Nor real inflation adjusted yield curve. Short term CPI figures will move centre stage.

Nobel-winning economist says forget yield curves— this may be what really fuels a recession

Bet is who will blink first? Within UK Brexit is favored and opposition fractured. Within Europe May's deal for Brexit still favored with no opposition. Exciting for traders but which way to bet? No extension this time?

About Merkel's 30 days remark, a German official says she was being "polite"

This is a fine article and at last one recognizing the deflationary forces which have been unleashed. Analysis of the causes is required to assess the strength of these forces and urgently. It is not only a monetary force but surely the impacts of ...

The Fed needs to radically change policy and start printing money

TIPS chart attached. Useful to compare this yield with nominal yields to get a handle on expected deflation but need to be careful to adjust for principal changes.

Wharton's Jeremy Siegel: Prepare for a Slowdown, Not a Recession

"What happens to TIPS (inflation linked US bonds) if deflation occurs? The principal is adjusted downward, and your interest payments are less than they would be if inflation occurred or if the Consumer Price Index remained the same. You have this ...

Wharton's Jeremy Siegel: Prepare for a Slowdown, Not a Recession

The real economy is affected by real interest rates (nominal rates adjusted for changes in expected CPI changes). The world and bond market yields are telling us a period of deflation is here (falling prices) which is independent of slowdowns ...

Wharton's Jeremy Siegel: Prepare for a Slowdown, Not a Recession