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- AnniLi commented Sep 9, 2019
The problem is that tariffs are not a major discretionary component of this adminstration's fiscal policy. The adminstration is very strongly opposed to protectionism from a philosophical viewpoint (it is said). Rather the strategy is to bring a dog ...
The Development Of Supply-Side Doctrine On Tariffs
- AnniLi commented Sep 9, 2019
The proposal that bond markets are predicting recession needs to be put against the proposal that the bond markets are predicting lower inflation or even deflation around the world. The difference is not trivial. On the case for the latter we recall ...
Is our economic rescue plan made in China?
- AnniLi commented Sep 7, 2019
I see deflation. Long time not coming inflation.
BoJ Kuroda: Keeps Rate Cuts 'Further Into Negative Zone' In Arsenal – Nikkei Interview
- AnniLi commented Sep 7, 2019
Would it be unkind to ask for a clarification with pertinent evidence? We are here to attempt to make decisions.
China and Russia to edge closer to reducing US dollar reliance with Moscow set to launch first...
- AnniLi commented Sep 7, 2019
Fed's priority is still fighting inflation not high unemployment. Deflation is now a big risk for USA and no-one seems to recognize this (maybe Trump but not explicitly). Imported deflation is the main threat but you need to adjust for pesky ...
U.S. job growth slows more than expected; wages, hours pick up
- AnniLi commented Sep 7, 2019
With deflation bonds are a great buy. The stronger the deflation the stronger the bond market. CPI data will be distorted by tariffs, sanctions et al. US intervention in global trade markets make it difficult. Free markets work ..... pity USA does ...
Mohamed El-Erian on the bond markets: 'If you stick with the old rules, you will lose'
- AnniLi commented Sep 7, 2019
In your heart you know USA is not performing well. A massive fiscal deficit where a surplus should be. Minimal progress in every geography. Unnecessary global slowdown. Dysfunctional domestic policies. Denial on many fronts. Fake President. And I am ...
Powell: US economy continuing to perform well with favorable outlook
- AnniLi commented Sep 7, 2019
Unconvincing. No mention of deflation risk.
Powell says the Fed is not forecasting or expecting a recession
- AnniLi commented Sep 7, 2019
Politics a bad bet on any occasion. Isnt this where we came in? Try again next week, year or decade.
UK Political Volatility Means Risk of No-Deal Brexit Is Still Significant
- AnniLi commented Sep 7, 2019
Been bearish and correct for 18 months. No change.
EURUSD: More Room to Move Higher Than Lower
- AnniLi commented Sep 7, 2019
Deflation is a big part of US story. Of course sanctions, tariffs et al confuse the stats but you can't just ignore it- bonds do not.
September Macro Update: Rising Possibility of a Recession in 2020
- AnniLi commented Sep 7, 2019
Deflation is not mentioned. Why do we hear nothing about US deflation - deflation anywhere? It is negative inflation akin to negative interest rates. Big factor for USD.
Caught between uncertainty and easy money
- AnniLi commented Sep 7, 2019
Hong Kong people have some responsibility to help achieve a bloodless endgame for CCP monopoly. CCP is already facing the horns of the dilemma of history but is receiving a great deal of support from US policies.
Hong Kong police fire rubber bullets to try to clear protesters
- AnniLi commented Sep 7, 2019
The first four words were enough.
Kudlow: tempers are calmer, positive that China coming to us
- AnniLi commented Sep 6, 2019
I need to put this thread aside for Christmas reading and a swear dictionary. Interesting number of comments compared to any other 'news'. As BJ investigates his hat for missing rabbit am losing all my excitement about late October. This is where I ...
UK's HOL approves law which would force Johnson to seek a delay to Brexit
- AnniLi commented Sep 6, 2019
Jordan said the obvious but the important fact is he said it. Could be softening markets up for another CHF intervention.
SNB’s Jordan: Global Economy Is Slowing Down
- AnniLi commented Sep 5, 2019
No progress in fiscal deficit automatically translates to problems in the external accounts. This is a no brainer. USA controls its destiny just like everyone else. Every US business and consumer will rip you off if they can get away with it, but ...
Trade Report: No China Progress, Deficit With EU, Canada, Mexico, Japan Rising
- AnniLi commented Sep 5, 2019
Democracy is a weak lantern in a stormy dark night. Lose its light and you will find .... a ditch. Johnson is trying to move forward having picked up the same lantern as May. Looks like another extended wait for the kind of decision which might give ...
U.K.’s Johnson in crisis after failing to trigger early election