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EventsTrader commented Dec 20, 2024While the m/m figure missed forecast, 2.8% y/y remains well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Notables:
Real PCE adjusted for inflation, increased 0.3%, driven by higher spending on goods. ...
US Personal Income and Outlays, November 2024
- EventsTrader commented Dec 11, 2024
Mostly in line. Maybe a little hot. Notables:
To three decimals CPI m/m came in at 0.313% and Core CPI m/m at 0.308%. Food rose 0.4%, driven by food at home up +0.5% and food away from home up ...US Consumer Price Index - November 2024
- EventsTrader commented Dec 6, 2024
Can't make sense of a dollar sell off on this data. NFP bounce back, along with a higher than expected reading in wages.
Notables: Health Care: Added 54K jobs, driven by gains in ambulatory health ...The US Employment Situation -- November 2024
- EventsTrader commented Nov 18, 2024
Current probability is about 60/40 towards a 25 bps rate cut. There's some room for USD volatility in either direction as the market further prices in the rate cut, or prices it out. The Fed's rate cut could be a Christmas present to the stock ...
Powell: Economic Outlook
- EventsTrader commented Nov 13, 2024
Oh for sure. I don't think this fits the dovish Fed narrative.
US Consumer Price Index - October 2024
- EventsTrader commented Nov 13, 2024
Dud. In line with expectations.
Used Cars and Trucks increased 2.7%, rebounding from a 0.3% rise in September. Electricity rose 1.2%, following minor fluctuations in previous ...US Consumer Price Index - October 2024
- EventsTrader commented Nov 1, 2024
Civilian Labor Force declined by -220K, indicating a reduction in labor participation. I've never been a big believer in the unemployment rate because of how they exclude so much of the population that maybe should be included. Individuals who ...
The US Employment Situation -- October 2024
- EventsTrader commented Nov 1, 2024
Temp jobs always go before full time employees. That weakness carries weight.
The US Employment Situation -- October 2024
- EventsTrader commented Nov 1, 2024
Big miss! An uptick in avg hourly earnings but prior revised down. The story of this release could be the downward revisions in NFP and the decline in temp jobs. Notables:
Government Employment added 40K, driven by gains ...The US Employment Situation -- October 2024
- EventsTrader commented Oct 4, 2024
It's unrealistic to expect a Yes or No answer. If I had to answer it'd be that they should at least slow down the rate at which they are cutting. If inflation starts to come back there will be egg on a lot of faces. Goolsbee was speaking today and ...
The US Employment Situation -- September 2024
- EventsTrader commented Oct 4, 2024
You take out government and social services the labor market still added 186K which was still above the 147K forecast. The manufacturing sector continues to bleed. But there wasn't any major weakness in any one sector. Where the weakness is in this ...
The US Employment Situation -- September 2024
- EventsTrader commented Oct 4, 2024
Last month's Avg Hourly Earnings revised higher too.
The US Employment Situation -- September 2024
- EventsTrader commented Oct 4, 2024. Fed might be in trouble. They're cutting rates into a tight labor market but justifying the 50 bps rate cut pointing to a weak labor market. Not much weakness in this report at all. Food ...The US Employment Situation -- September 2024
- EventsTrader commented Oct 3, 2024
Very strong report with inflation pressures persisting.
Notables: Business Activity Index (59.9%) increased by 6.6%, showing a strong surge in service sector activity. This marks the third consecutive month ...US Services PMI at 54.9%; September 2024 Services ISM Report On Business
- EventsTrader commented Oct 1, 2024
Prices paid 
This easing of price pressures is a positive sign for manufacturers, as it reduces the inflationary burden on their production costs, but it also reflects weakening ...US Manufacturing PMI at 47.2%; September 2024 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business
- EventsTrader commented Oct 1, 2024
Stronger than expected.
Job openings increased notably in construction, up 138K and state and local government excluding education up by 78K. Total ...US Job Openings and Labor Turnover – August 2024
- EventsTrader replied Sep 19, 2024
Check out the 'Quick Links' on the right hand side. Here's their methodology: url
High Impact Events Trading... Bitcoin
- EventsTrader commented Sep 18, 2024
Very opposite from everything I've ever read in any of his books. The China bull!
Dalio Sees ‘Real Issues’ in China, Keeps Small Exposure
- EventsTrader replied Sep 18, 2024
Save this link! url It's the FedWatch tool from CME and will tell you the probabilities for upcoming Fed rate decision. Currently at 65% for 50 bps. image
High Impact Events Trading... Bitcoin
- EventsTrader replied Sep 17, 2024
FOMC Meeting - September Preview US Federal Funds Rate US FOMC Economic Projections US FOMC Statement US FOMC Press Conference Forecasts and expectations The Fed is widely expected to begin cutting rates at this meeting, however, the size of the cut ...
High Impact Events Trading... Bitcoin