Submitted Mar 14, 2023|From blog.hycmlab.com

The latest SVB news has greatly changed interest rate expectations for the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday. Short Term Interest Rate markets have reacted very strongly to the news pricing back into rates markets a year-end rate cut. Similarly, ...

Submitted Mar 3, 2023|From blog.hycmlab.com

Two of the strongest months for gold tend to be January and August. However, over the last 25 years, the weakest month for gold has been March. The early bounce in gold around the turn of the month has largely been on a retracement in the USD and ...

Submitted Mar 3, 2023|From blog.hycmlab.com|5 comments

This week was all about a further jump in expectations of higher US interest rates. However, the drop in the US ISM Manufacturing print was a firm reminder that the peak for US rates may not be too far away now. Furthermore, the drop in US ...

Submitted Mar 1, 2023|From blog.hycmlab.com

The key focus this week will be on the US ISM non-manufacturing PMI print. Recently there has been a divergence between expectations for US manufacturing and US services as the US has a disjointed post-Covid recovery. The last US ISM ...

Submitted Feb 28, 2023|From blog.hycmlab.com|1 comment

Around the autumn of last year the UK bond market was in a crisis. The cost of living, energy price surges, uncoated tax cuts announced by the Gov’t, sent the UK bond market into free fall as investors couldn’t sell UK debt quick enough. With ...

Submitted Feb 21, 2023|From blog.hycmlab.com|4 comments

Since the start of February, the USD has enjoyed a resurgence on a string of data points showing that the US may still need more rate hikes to contain a strong US jobs market in particular. The strong January jobs report released on February 3 gave ...

Submitted Feb 20, 2023|From blog.hycmlab.com

One of the tried and tested technical tools that traders have used for years is pivot points. Pivot points are a form of technical analysis that is used by traders as reference points for price. The way to think of them is as support and resistance ...

Submitted Feb 17, 2023|From blog.hycmlab.com

Next week the RBNZ is meeting and there is scope for some movement in the AUDNZD pair. At the last RBNZ meeting the RBNZ was very hawkish combating headline inflation that was over 7%. They projected a terminal rate of 5.5% for Q3 this year. The ...

Submitted Feb 16, 2023|From blog.hycmlab.com

This chart shows the seasonal impact of the US Producer Prices Index print over the last 275 prints. US inflation, alongside US labour data, is a key focus of the Federal Reserve right now. Check out to see how the seasonal dynamics of the reaction ...

Submitted Feb 13, 2023|From blog.hycmlab.com

video Time for GBPUSD to erase the BoE’s falls? On February 2, the Bank of England made a 50bps hike as expected. However, the decision was ultimately seen as a dovish one as the Bank of England left open the possibility that it could be the last ...

Submitted Feb 9, 2023|From blog.hycmlab.com

At the last BoC interest rate meeting it became clear that the BoC may have now had its very last rate hike for this year. Headline inflation fell from June’s peak of 6.2% last year and December’s inflation print was at 5.4%. Short Term Interest ...

Submitted Feb 1, 2023|From blog.hycmlab.com

There are a few reasons cited for oil markets to gain over the medium term. Russia’s oil ban from the EU comes into place on February 5 and China’s recent PMI prints showed a surprise expansionary print indicating strength in China’s service sector ...

Submitted Jan 17, 2023|From blog.hycmlab.com|1 comment

Last week saw gold taking another rally higher on further relief/confirmation that US inflation has peaked. The US CPI headline print was in line with the consensus of 6.5% and the core was too at 5.7%. These readings were also both down, lower from ...

Submitted Jan 13, 2023|From blog.hycmlab.com

The outlook for the UK remains bleak with the Bank of England projecting 5 quarters of recession. On top of this, the UK is in a bleak political phase. The current Conservative power is in power but widely expected to lose to Labour at the next ...

Submitted Jan 10, 2023|From blog.hycmlab.com|9 comments

There is a discrepancy between the market and the Fed that provides a potential opportunity and it can impact the USD. In brief, the Fed projected no Fed rate cuts this year in its December meeting. However, STIR markets are seeing the Fed making ...

Submitted Jan 5, 2023|From blog.hycmlab.com

video The outlook for gold has been improving since the US10Y bond yield appeared to cap out around the 4.35% region at the end of October last year. The USD also gave up its September high adding to support for gold. One of the expectations for ...

Submitted Dec 29, 2022|From blog.hycmlab.com

Platinum is one metal that has an amazing seasonal start to the year. The reason is largely due to the fact that Platinum buying takes place around the start of the year, so there is a disproportionate amount of buying that takes place. This ...

Submitted Dec 28, 2022|From blog.hycmlab.com

Over the last 22 years from December 24 to December 31, the NZDUSD pair has gained over 90% of the time and has risen 20 times. The largest gain was over 4% in 2010. Will we see NZDUSD gain again this year despite the latest hawkish Fed meeting as ...

Submitted Dec 27, 2022|From blog.hycmlab.com|1 comment

The USD is vulnerable to a time of weakness around the end of the year. This is due to US tax balancing that regularly sees USD flows out of US companies into daughter companies. So, the USD does tend to be very weak heading into year-end. As a ...

Submitted Dec 20, 2022|From blog.hycmlab.com

You may have heard that gold tends to be strong around the end of the year. So, how to choose a great time of seasonal strength for gold? With Seasonax tool you can identify a strong seasonal pattern. Choose which date to start and use the de-trend ...