I think trading the Aussie - is the easiest currency pair to trade. China has a major effect on the Aussie. Issues over Taiwan, the commercial property market and trade issues with the West all playing on sentiment. Also iron ore forecasts don't ...

Cable Update (GBPUSD)

We have had a b shape on volume/market profile GU on Friday after a down move - and that usually is bullish. Unfortunately- banks are bearish - and just had a look at options pricing for Monday - pretty negative. Had a quick check their does not ...

Cable Update (GBPUSD)

Fundamentals are abstract -you have to think like a market maker Macro for next week: US employment forecast figures for next week - look weak. Fed has talked about being data dependant-so lets see Although PMIs seem better. BOE likely to hike- in ...

Cable Update (GBPUSD)

This is a retail forum- posters are not going to know much. It is what it is. Happy to talk about fundamentals if that is of any interest.

Cable Update (GBPUSD)

Cable's only chance of hope - is for a dovish FOMC Europe is in a complete mess- Lagarde is so out of her depth.

Cable Update (GBPUSD)

Nice start....120 pips! UK PMIs - contracting speeding up EU PMI- shocking Lots of bits and bobs Aussie CPI FOMC ECB BOJ Fed: 25 hike well priced in. There are certain factors that are supportive of higher interest rates - oil being one- but that is ...

Fundamental Trading Journal

Some longer term trades that I am looking at. Short GBPNZD- Structure and 10 year spreads - indicate a sell. Macro - Dairy Index forecasting growth over the remainder of the year & UK inflation dropping faster than expected

Fundamental Trading Journal

Jane Foley - a strategist I rate

Cable Update (GBPUSD)

UK CPI figures still driving sentiment.

Cable Update (GBPUSD)

____________________________________________________________________________________ Hit 1.30 on CPI data release!

Fundamental Trading Journal

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Fundamental Trading Journal

UPDATE: Cable off- nice divergent value - got some. But yields!!! Structurally - it looks as though it has further to go. Huge risk though of Cable getting above 1.30 Think that this is going to be due to US CPI data- ...

Fundamental Trading Journal

Looking at options pricing though on Friday - not that great Puts more expensive on the Pound 10 yr spreads turned south on Friday 50/50 on Gold-1950 will get defended though Also on the Friday close - price rallied- seems a bit bearish to me. ...

Fundamental Trading Journal

All I am thinking atm is long Gold and short equities a) BRICS new currency- being announced in August b) Yen - currency intervention/inflation outlook - at the end of the month. c) Low US inflation figures this week- core is finally moving south. ...

Fundamental Trading Journal

For me Gold should be a short- perhaps lower PCE estimate acting as a support But everything else- real yields etc... is screaming south Gold was bullish in the NY session despite real yields- so there is obviously buying going on somewhere Maybe ...

Gold

I know Gold is low - but is anyone going to be long Gold after the chair of the Fed was talking up interest rates Perhaps I am missing something

Gold

All eyes are going to on UK inflation data on Wednesday. Until then volatility I would expect would likely to be muted/perhaps some more long covering. Looking at SONIA - I can only see another 50 bp hike this year and the sovereign credit markets ...

Fundamental Trading Journal

Liquidity in the strictest sense of the word- means the number of limit orders each side of the bid offer spread. If there is a lot - this means its a thick market (and vice versa) for thin. Thick markets would be something like bonds (typically the ...

Cable Update (GBPUSD)

Mini trade agreement between the US and the UK - will always boost the pound- hence the move today The UK is seen more as a safe haven. Thing is the UK has a strong banking system- Europe and the US both have had issues further helping the pound. ...

Cable Update (GBPUSD)

Problem is the breakeven price on Crude is circa $65.7 a barrel for SA- hence their need for a high price of oil Saudi Arabia: breakeven oil price by account 2000-2022 | Statista

Cable Update (GBPUSD)