If you must reply, you must reply... I didn't say that I agree with the Random Walk Hypothesis but I drew the conclusion that academics are usually wrong in their analysis of the market. Regardless of the fancy new theory which pays their bills, ...

The DIBS Method... No Free Lunch continues

Maybe he trades millions and is satisfied with 15% profit yearly risking no more than 0.3% of his account on every trade and he had 2 lucky years. I've said before here that you could have made 200% or more in the first half of 2010 trading only the ...

The DIBS Method... No Free Lunch continues

100 pips. I dislike losing 7 or 10 pips.

Money Management - the art of the exit

Statistically speaking, the crosses of moving averages are more reliable the higher the time frame you test, considering that you adjust the targets based on the ATR of that TF.

Why exactly do EMA crossover systems not work?

I don't have to predict anything, I'd close my position after 20 pips in my favor. Now, look. The easiest way to trade is to understand how the market moves, when it moves and which are the signs before of a movement begins or for the ...

Money Management - the art of the exit

It is the time to rest my case.

Thinking 3D

I didn't say that, read again my post. 100 pips stoploss, 4000 pips gain monthly, 5% risk per trade. I know exactly the amount of returns you must have. I've just said that I don't believe that you're doing what you pretend because the odds are ...

Thinking 3D

The whole point of trading is to compound as fast as possible in order to reach a balance big enough to allow you to risk a very small procent in order to make a very good living out of trading. Actually that's the idea behind every business in the ...

Thinking 3D

My bullshit detector can't take it anymore... To cool it off, let me ask a simple question: having a risk:reward of 1:40, what exactly are you trying to maximize? Just a few months with your exponentially profits and you wouldn't be able to have a ...

Thinking 3D

7bit, it is useless to argue with them. Accept it as a fact of life, they don't get it.

"Hedging" Revisited

If those traders made money is an open question and we don't know. The problem is, you can only declare a system profitable if you have clear rules for entry and exit and you can backtest it over more than 1000 trades. Beside DIBS, whose entry is ...

Best trading systems on forexfactory

The only system from that list which works from time to time is DIBS. All the other require charts on drugs and so many discretionary decisions that nobody can test them.

Best trading systems on forexfactory

There's nothing wrong with the idea but you don't seem to know why you're profitable. You are profitable because you trade till the market goes in your direction long enough to cover the previous small losses and you've tested during an unusually ...

"Hedging" Revisited

A big meteorite hits the Earth... If some cataclismic event will happen, the only thing you'd do, if you're still alive and have chances to stay alive for more than a few weeks, is to search for a safe place. Paper money will lose its meaning, as ...

What if the dollar crashes?

Did you spend at least 5 minutes thinking how would be possible for a major currency to dissapear overnight?

What if the dollar crashes?

It is a paid service but we don't afford it. The banks, who know the orderflow, use it for themselves or for very important customers.

Oanda Order Book

Money management provides an edge. It is unbelievable how many think so and I'm always asking myself why they don't beat the casino.

Ridiculous Trading Myths

we'd wish... On the other hand, when everyone has it there's no edge in it anymore.

Oanda Order Book

Being a programmer I ran thousands of simulations of every exit one can imagine and I wasn't able to find a better one than a fixed TP, from a compounding and drawdown point of view. If one is in profit 100 pips on a trade in any pair, the chance ...

Risk Reward: 1:1, 1:2 or 1:3

What I'm also trying to prove as a theorem is that if a system is not profitable at 1:1 including the cost of spread and assuming constant volatility, it is impossible to make it profitable by expecting 1:N. In the end the only thing which one can ...

Risk Reward: 1:1, 1:2 or 1:3