And you would have been right, too. Hehe. "Random" means a 50% chance of it going up, and a 50% chance of it going down. Right? Simple definitions are best. So all one needs to do is prove that there are times when there's a >50% chance of something ...

TA self fullfilled prophecies... what a joke.

Go here: url There exist systems w/ positive expectancy. My "9 or better" game works perfectly to explain this issue. It's basic conditional probability. MM provides no edge. Even the best MM in the world will not turn a negative expectancy system ...

TA self fullfilled prophecies... what a joke.

That's a fun discussion, lol. Subject to a great deal of philosophy. Is the lack of something... ie: nothingness, in-and-of itself... something? Sometimes chaos has a lot of order. Nonsense makes the most sense. LOL. Ideal gas law. PV = nRT. Trading ...

TA self fullfilled prophecies... what a joke.

So randomness is like God? Hehe. Actually you can't really prove it, but you can gather a lot of evidence. You most certainly can disprove it, however, by determing the distribution of the data. I've written about that till my face turned blue... ...

TA self fullfilled prophecies... what a joke.

Yea, me too. Traceroute died before it hit the server. Bad routing somewhere. Brownian motion. The average velocity (measured by the pressure exerted by the atoms on their container) is proportional to temperature. This is a fundamental law of ...

TA self fullfilled prophecies... what a joke.

Very well said. Couldn't agree more.

TA self fullfilled prophecies... what a joke.

Hah. Even the best indicators are less than 50/50. For large chunks of time the next bar is exactly 50% likely to be either direction. All a function of volatility and directionality. In a non-directional market it's 50/50 for a 1:1 RR. Which is why ...

Probability

Yawn. Except that it isn't random all the time. And when it isn't, it isn't. Standard TA is all in the context. Learn to read the market's context and you'll be fine. Some of this stuff is so easy it's scary. Look around at my past posts for ...

TA self fullfilled prophecies... what a joke.

Low liquidity allows ppl w/ pockets to drive the price, take out stops, then close their position... driving it back. It happens frequently, happened last holiday season too. Don't enter new long term positions around the holidays and be mindful of ...

believe it or not, 15% in "SECOND", and prove it

No

Who's made a million dollars?

There are ppl in these forums that have made 7 (perhaps 8) figures trading. Some even have a decent post count, altho they aren't likely to come out and admit their success online (it invites trouble). People play online for all sorts of reasons, to ...

Who's made a million dollars?

Then another country can buy up a lot of gold and cause massive deflation. Ppl are too young to remember, but the gold standard caused far more economic problems than it solved during it's time. Infact the gold standard caused a recession because of ...

forex during a recession?

I think you've hit the nail on the head right there. I think the only thing that matters, really, is that you're trading with the imbalance. That's where the difference between long and short term traders becomes obvious. If you trade against the ...

CBOT Market Profile

A common trade occurs where price fails to continue bringing in initiating traders and reverses. If price continues reversing thru the previous day's value area you get a reversal trade if you want it. I sometimes take these, but not often. I took ...

CBOT Market Profile

Not here.

spike VT 150 pips

I wrote a little indi that draws the PoC, and then sometimes add in the MP indi that's floating around. One of these days I might expand it to add the value area and stuff, but for now most of that's easy to spot w/o a graphic.

CBOT Market Profile

It does indeed. Balance area and the previous day's range are huge factors. Other pairs do the same, but each pair is skewed a bit by the underlying dollar action. From observation it seems the EURUSD best follows MP concepts and travels against the ...

CBOT Market Profile

Wrote all of that hours ago, anyone check the EURUSD this morning? Again we see movement in the overnight session, where movement is normally light... then bam, off like a rocket. Didn't really get much of a test in, more of a light pause... but the ...

CBOT Market Profile

That's what makes it so much fun... The only question I have is... what impact will alcohol have on their trading decisions that day?

Trading the Holidays...

While true in theory, in practice it's not always (or even often) accurate. Volume does tend to make a "peak" before a reversal, so if you see a decrease in volume following a set of increased volume bars, yea you might get a reversal, but that's ...

CBOT Market Profile