Is there even such a thing as a high probability trade? Unless you are scalping some particular pattern that arises due to an inefficiency, attempting to maximize your win rate will reduce your absolute returns in the long run.

High hit rate vs big R:R - Which one do you prefer and why?

I personally dislike waiting for pullbacks as they are difficult to quantify and if you get in on a pullback its a sign that the trend has lost some of its force (even though you are getting in at the better position). Some major trends in the past ...

Have been chasing trends for 14 months - Some thoughts

The technical stuff and statistics is just a flavour of trading that appeals to the more analytical type of people. In the end its just a set of rules that buys when price is going up and sells when price is going down. If you have a pair of eyes ...

What works, and what doesn't

I find that the best way to manage a trade is to have rules that let profits run and cut losses shorts. Scaling out a position should only be considered in very special cases where you feel the need to reduce exposure for risk management purposes.

Your thoughts/experience/advice on trade management?

image Anyone know what indicator this is? It seems to gain a lot of pips.

What works, and what doesn't

Sorry im new to forex. Any tips for grabbing pips off the 5m chart? Do pros use stoploss?

What works, and what doesn't

No, I think what we need is a story. Enjoy: The Jademaster One cold winter morning a young man walks five miles through the snow. He knocks on the Jademaster's door. The Jademaster answers with a broom in his hands. "Yes?" "I want to learn about ...

What works, and what doesn't

I don't know what that means but ok heres an idea: - When daily price closes above the high of the past 100 days, go long. Trail the stop each day from the low of the past 100 days. - Opposite for shorts. - Keep your bets at a tolerable size.

What works, and what doesn't

As in, you want me to describe a specific method?

What works, and what doesn't

Hmm, its quite the opposite. What is there to discuss about trading if not the mental or philosophical aspects? All the technical and analytical aspects of trading are basically the same. There is nothing to discuss. Every trading method that works ...

What works, and what doesn't

What does the shift refer to? What values do you use for the 2 MAs? What granularity of data are they applied to?

Honing a strategy

lol But really, dont take it as any form of confirmation. What goes into your system has to make sense to you. When markets don't go your way, your mind will do everything to make your system look broken and nonsensical. The psychological element ...

Honing a strategy

That seems to make sense. Btw, what is this Ash indicator?

Honing a strategy

It is flawed because it attempts to adaptively optimize something that defies all attempts at fine tuning. A profitable backtest result alone will not be able to suggest robustness because of this very nature of the system. However, if somehow the ...

What works, and what doesn't

If you manage this that would also be quite a feat. Its common to have varying performance from different markets. I would also suggest testing it out on other commodities as, right now, your test results are concentrated in the currency markets. ...

Honing a strategy

Well, I guess I shouldn't judge your definition. 'Trends' take many shapes and forms to me. Go back long enough on a daily price chart and you will see anything and everything.

What works, and what doesn't

I notice that your definition for a 'trending market' doesn't include trending scenarios marked by extreme directional volatility and range expansion.

What works, and what doesn't

It can be literally anything. Even the term 'character' that we use to ascribe a quality to market activity is subjective and different people will perceive this shift in a different way from their personal trading metaphor. This doesn't only apply ...

What works, and what doesn't

Thats pretty commonsensical though what im alluding to is actually understanding the nature of the game. If people truly came to terms with and appreciate the uncertainty that accompanies trading there would be a lot less traders. Deciding not to be ...

LFX Trading Proverbs

I agree that good systems have a dynamic component that shifts with market character. However, the idea of machine learning that you allude to is a flawed concept in trading system design. Having system rules and degrees of freedom that change all ...

What works, and what doesn't