I would not be the least surprised to see another test of the 200SMA on the daily chart at 1.4150, which also coincides with the top of the wedge. Of course, anything can happen and it depends on the hypothetical "announcement". This whole scenario ...

EurAnalysis

Excellent post. This in my view is exactly what is going to happen.

EurAnalysis

I agree with everything you said and it should play out exactly as you say, BUT, remember what happened in October. We should not underestimate the power of the enormous number of shorts covering at the same time due to a hopium announcement. It ...

EurAnalysis

The difference is that there is a limit to what the EFSF can purchase. Expanding that limit is not an option at this point. Eurobonds have no such limit, in theory.

EurAnalysis

Of course they will, if the alternative is a banking collapse and depression. If we get to the edge of the cliff, they will suddenly become pragmatic.

EurAnalysis

So far so good. Trying to hammer out a bottom here for a launch today or tomorrow.

EurAnalysis

I agree with you that Eurobonds would not work and would require Treaty changes, but the announcement would move the markets due to the hopium generated.

EurAnalysis

I don´t think the Fed/ECB will let that happen again. There are silver bullets in case they are needed. Money printing (QE3) and Eurobonds. The announcement of either would immediately spark a huge rally in the markets and the euro. I bet you they ...

EurAnalysis

H4 chart. See attached.

EurAnalysis

S&P H4 chart is showing three straight green bullish divergence arrows on the Trix. The RSI has broken out of its downtrend line. I expect price to retrace to the 61.8% Fib level of 1228, which coincides nicely with the 200SMA (Blue Line). This in ...

EurAnalysis

The fun is just beginning in my view. The RSI is looking really strong and may breakout in the next 4 hours.

EurAnalysis

Excellent thought, Aaron.

EurAnalysis

Lumesh, buying at support or selling at resistance levels works more often than not and allows for a pretty tight stop loss on the other side of S/R level. Yesterday I was stopped out but no harm done. I bought again at support of bottom wedge wall ...

EurAnalysis

Yes. The number next to the name or signature would be ideal. I am also +3 on the H4 right now. If RSI breaks the descending trendline I will move to +4.

EurAnalysis

MTS - Market Trading Sentiment — I have a suggestion: Why not create among us a gauge that we can use in this thread that would quickly objectively inform both newbies and more experienced traders how each of us feel about EURUSD at any ...

EurAnalysis

I feel it is solid. It has three highs forming it and, most importantly, it follows the path of the 55 EMA. In most descending wedges, the top wall coincides pretty much with the 55 EMA.

EurAnalysis

I am bearish too. I expect EUR under 1.20 by early 2012 and parity during 2012, but I love counter trend rallies. They are exciting and can be very explosive and profitable. You can also lose your shirt with them if your timing is off. I guess ...

EurAnalysis

Did your system trade also on ranging periods in addition to trending ones? If not, how did you filter those out?

EurAnalysis

I agree with you, Aaron. And yet again, the 3 straight divergences on the Trix and the ascending trendline on the bottoms of the RSI is plenty of evidence that the floor is solid. I would say the likelihood of a double bottom would be somewhere ...

EurAnalysis

I failed to mention that it is still very possible that we get a quick last shakeout to the lows, maybe even making a new low, before heading higher. In fact, this is likely to happen.

EurAnalysis