My sample is only an illustration, it is not my real trades. Martingale gambling is also an example to illustrate possible problems with skew averaging. As I said, this is an small probability event. But If it happend it really kills. This is ...

Technical Analysis Fallacy

Hi, Lusan: That post illustrated only an possible senerio. In 5m chart of yours, you placed scout on 25 Feb. In my illustration the order is between 08:00hrs to 09:00hrs Feb 26 (the last red candle). The time zone is GMT+1. And if you attacked since ...

Technical Analysis Fallacy

Have a good sleep, Leighw. During 2006, I traded only GBP/USD, very few times other pairs, maybe less than 1 percent of all the trades. So I am quite familiar that lady's temper. She is very volatile. Remember, volatility is a key to rescue ...

Technical Analysis Fallacy

A possilbe "dead in water" senerio? — Imagine you have 10,000$ account. You sent a scout and shorted E/U @4806 on Feb 26. The possible rescue could be illustrated on the attached chart. And a rescue up to level 6 as the following: ...

Technical Analysis Fallacy

Well, for stocks I did't trade, maybe twice a year if you call that is also trading. I do sort of investment which means basically I buy and hold on fundamentals not on TA. In fact, the stock which gave me 200% return is not due to trading, due to ...

Technical Analysis Fallacy

Hi, Lusa, 1% per day, trade 250 days for a year, by compounding every day, your ROI is 11 times. Of course, this is great reward. 0.3% every day, ROI is 100% for 250 days compounding. But some questions, 1. Are you sure you can make money every day? ...

Technical Analysis Fallacy

The reason why I trade two pairs, as I said, similiar to timing. If maximum lots can be traded for one pair is 1.2 mini lots in one 1200$ A/C, just split and allocate with the same skew as your table, if 0.05 lots allowed. So, the key is still MM. ...

Technical Analysis Fallacy

Well, I don't know how to say. Yesterday, E/U price dropped more than 1%, right? You earned 0.3%. If this is the case for me, I won't trade forex at all. Since I alsl do some investment in stocks twice a year, it is easy to get 50% per year. Last ...

Technical Analysis Fallacy

Hi, I am here. FTi has taught us all the main parts, it is up to us to refine and interlise and practise. I started to read again the thread. Actually he has told us everything. I am wondering why I repeat all the same mistakes again and again? David ...

Technical Analysis Fallacy

Well, today the market is quiet for G/U, but E/U increased 100 pips London session. I shorted both E/U and G/U. G/U performance sounds right. But not clear about E/U. E/u looks very strong. Well, the positions size is up to you. Are you a full time ...

Technical Analysis Fallacy

Well, I don't know why daytime connection to overseas are so bad. What I want to say, is, the dancing with market can very easily lead us to a trap Ok, look at the yester E/U 15 minutes chart. If you had short positions stuck with -50 pips before ...

Technical Analysis Fallacy

Hi, Zoran, I agree with Jairo, that, if your overnight position is small and you won't be away from the market a long time. Not bother with stops. If you think by PA or any reason that you don't need to hold any more, just close the overnight ...

Technical Analysis Fallacy

Well, I put this way, if I want to carry my trades overnight, I will think if the price goes agains me for 100 pips(for u/r) will it hurt my accout seriously or I will have no more troops available to rescue? Then I will adjust my positions. In ...

Technical Analysis Fallacy

Hi, Leghw, thanks for your detailed explanation. Very good information, "wait max. 7 candles to start rescue". Well, I totally agree with you that I need to reduce my positions. That's why I gave up bigger profit opportunity by closing out ...

Technical Analysis Fallacy

@Jairo: To carry positions on, you are right, zoom out to see longer timeframe. @Skepeters: Welcome aboard. You changed to 5 second time frame, maybe it is too tight. Anyway, you may find suitable timefram for you after demoing some time. @Jest: Hi. ...

Technical Analysis Fallacy

Hi, Zoran: I remember fti said, 1) the positions you can carry over are a fraction of his daylight positions. 2) The position closed bring profits to ourt book, and that give us a buffer if overnight positions got some trouble, so when it did ...

Technical Analysis Fallacy

Maybe the market is waiting for FOMC minutes. I was surprised E/U didn't react much to the pending home sales data release. What a bad data. Quite interesting. If you see the daily chart, would you get bearish or bullish? Of course, still 4 hours to ...

Technical Analysis Fallacy

Welcome to join this thread. Since you are from Japan, we have more asians here, and AOW is no problem for you. Well, "don't listen to the tune", IMHO, that may be due to your ego goes into your trade and try to rationalize the chart as fti said. Do ...

Technical Analysis Fallacy

You are right. My dancing normally start with middle of Asia session and into NY middle session. The range shall be 50~200 pips, that's why I said that. Lusan trade only 1 hour so the range shall be much less if no news. So with a 100 possible range ...

Technical Analysis Fallacy

Hi, Jest My E/U rescue 4 troops closed on average 5730 with around +20 pips for each. E/U ranged btw 5775~5750 too long, when true price move comes, I lost patience or patience exausted and I closed to release before it touched 5725. That is the ...

Technical Analysis Fallacy