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    • venzen replied Apr 29, 2014

      I tried counting the current PA but the results are non-sensical: this first chart (M5) has an apparently sensical count but it's invalidated by the fact that wave 3 of C is lower than wave 1. emptymind would castigate me for such a rookie mistake! ...

      Bitcoin technical analysis
    • venzen replied Apr 29, 2014

      I didn't explain myself well, here it is again but with lightblue arrows indicating the reaction point on the time axis So where those white trendlines (or vector lines, i guess) intersect to form an apex that is the point in time when the market ...

      Bitcoin technical analysis
    • venzen replied Apr 29, 2014

      I also think it'll go for the target, because every time these apexes play out its as if price desperately races toward the point at the last minute - the ultimate fake-out! I actually first noticed this in gold - and it worked mostly during the ...

      Bitcoin technical analysis
    • venzen replied Apr 29, 2014

      This is not scientific and open to subjective interpretation, but it's still something i notice a lot - but it can also fail miserably: The white trendlines roughly outline boundaries of price action - or important lines that sometimes become ...

      Bitcoin technical analysis
    • venzen replied Apr 29, 2014

      Thanks for posting this chart, KO. It confirms the corrective nature of current PA. From around 447 it should decline strongly because the way its channeling between the two lightblue trendlines shows a triangle (a-b-c-d-e) - funny that Ralph ...

      Bitcoin technical analysis
    • venzen replied Apr 29, 2014

      BTW, i don't know if anybody is already doing this, or interested, but you might enjoy having IRC open and read what's being discussed in the #bitcoin, #bitcoin-dev, #bitcoin-otc (Over-the-counter), #bitcoin-pricetalk, etc. To join these channels go ...

      Bitcoin technical analysis
    • venzen replied Apr 29, 2014

      It's 100% subjective and sometimes we see the same count and then that's exciting and useful. But look for example how emptymind is counting 3w moves as 5 waves. emptymind is not wrong, it is because there's no clear directive for distinguishing 3w ...

      Bitcoin technical analysis
    • venzen replied Apr 29, 2014

      Thanks for sharing, because it's your reality - and mine too - so great to hear we're experiencing the same. If i didn't take the job writing for BTC I wouldn't be surviving right now - or i'd have to work on a boat or a rubber plantation somewhere. ...

      Bitcoin technical analysis
    • venzen replied Apr 29, 2014

      The desperation with with which most analysts are looking for the start of a rally, combined with the ease whereby bad news shatters the wafer-thin confidence of the bulls... i believe it's reasonable to expect price to fall violently and ...

      Bitcoin technical analysis
    • venzen replied Apr 29, 2014

      Exactly, it's what Federer calls "playing your percentages" - what do we have more evidence for and what are the chances of a directional bet here yielding profit? Unless price goes above that trendline capping the decline since Jan, we don't have ...

      Bitcoin technical analysis
    • venzen replied Apr 29, 2014

      hi emptymind, remember before i pointed you to the EWP textbook where they show at least 5 examples of diagonals lasting 3 - 4 months. i know you respect these web sources you quote and you obviously learn a lot from them, but they are wrong about ...

      Bitcoin technical analysis