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- Submitted Nov 19, 2024|From forex.com
News of Ukraine firing US long-range missiles deep within Russia prompted the Kremlin to up its threat of nuclear action, initially weighing on risk during the European and US session. Investors briefly bid safe-havens such as gold, Japanese yen and ...
- Submitted Nov 3, 2024|From forex.com
You may have heard that the US Presidential election is next week. It would be more amazing if you hadn’t. While betting markets have been favouring trump of late, I very much doubt it’s the slam dunk for Trump some markets were pricing last week. ...
- Submitted Oct 31, 2024|From forex.com
A less-dovish BOJ may have strengthened the yen while weak tech earnings weighed on Wall Street Thursday. But these patters could persist on Friday if they follow their usual pre-election path looking, according to historical data. The table below ...
- Submitted Oct 29, 2024|From forex.com
With just one week to go until the US election, we take a statistical look at how key markets have performed in the days surrounding this major event. The data may appear daunting at first, but there are a couple of distinct patterns which are worth ...
- Submitted Oct 27, 2024|From forex.com|1 comment
We can breeze past Monday and Tuesday with little to nothing of great interest in the calendar. Although traders will need to keep an eye on election headlines as it is beginning to make an impact on sentiment, and that means AUD/USD can get caught ...
- Submitted Oct 22, 2024|From forex.com
Traders continued to price in the prospects of a Trump win and a tapered rate of Fed cuts on Tuesday, seeing the US dollar extended its gains to a 2.5-month high. Although, like the rise of bond yields, gains were marginal. The performance of the ...
- Submitted Oct 14, 2024|From forex.com
Traders seems to be hedging event risk with the VIX heading into the US election, with traders close to net-long exposure despite record highs for the VIX. Asset managers and large specs continue to have opposing bets on the USD index, with the ...
- Submitted Oct 9, 2024|From forex.com
The Fed minutes revealed that their decision to cut by 50bp in September was not unanimous, which further supports the likelihood that they’ll continue to ease in 25bp increments going forward, unless US economic data takes a turn for the worse. ...
- Submitted Sep 2, 2024|From forex.com|2 comments
US economic data dominates the docket this week, with the slew of employment reports being the most notable. Traders are paying extra attention to jobs figures after Jerome Powell opened the door to multiple rate cuts, citing a labour market which ...
- Submitted Aug 28, 2024|From forex.com
Nvidia (NVDA) shares initially fell over 8% after hours despite beating earnings estimates, as their Q3 revenue outlook was revised -2% lower. Q2 EPS was at $0.68 compared with $0.64 expected and revenue of $30 billion compared with vs $28.7 billion ...
- Submitted Aug 11, 2024|From forex.com
Two RBA speeches take place on Monday and Friday. Deputy governor Andrew Hauser speaks at the ESA Business Lunch in Brisbane at 09:30 Monday, and Governor Michelle Bullock appears before the House of Representatives on Economics in Canberra on ...
- Submitted Aug 8, 2024|From forex.com
Looking across major indices and forex pairs, all I see is the same setup. A sudden drop of risk assets, with cautions gains now lifting them from their lows. Comments from Fed members have soothed fears of an emergency rate cut, lifting US yields ...
- Submitted Aug 6, 2024|From forex.com
Monday’s broad risk-off rout was beginning to look like nothing more than a bad dream early on Tuesday, with Wall Street indices recouping most of Monday’s losses early in yesterday’s session. Reassuring comments from the Fed that the job market ...
- Submitted Aug 5, 2024|From forex.com
Futures traders increased their net-long exposure to the US dollar across all currencies by US $6.3 billion last week, although the US dollar index fell -1% on Friday. • Net-long exposure to GBP/USD futures fell from a record high by -27% (-30.1k ...
- Submitted Aug 4, 2024|From forex.com
The RBA are very unlikely to raise their cash rate thanks to a weaker set of Q2 inflation figures. The question for Tuesday’s meeting is whether that will be enough for the RBA to remove their hawkish bias. Given the Fed are now officially dovish ...
- Submitted Jul 28, 2024|From forex.com
Australia’s Q2 inflation report on Wednesday is the key domestic event next week. While producer prices are released on Friday, markets would likely have decided already whether the RBA will hike again in August, based on the CPI data alone. Firm ...
- Submitted Jul 25, 2024|From forex.com|1 comment
US growth far surpassed expectations in Q2, rising 2.8% q/q compared with 2% estimated and 1.4% prior. Core PCE prices increased at a slower pace than feared at 2.9% q/q, although slightly above the 2.7% previously. Personal spending was also a beat ...
- Submitted Jul 17, 2024|From forex.com
Japan’s Ministry of Finance (MOF) appears to be taking full advantage of the path of least resistance by intervening when the Fed change their narrative towards a dovish pivot. As it seems that the MOF once again intervened on the yen on Wednesday ...
- Submitted Jul 11, 2024|From forex.com
The US inflation report was about as good as any dove could have hoped for, with all headline figures falling below expectations. We’ve now seen the complete set of weak CPI, PCE, NFP and ISM reports to more than suggest the US economy is slowing. ...
- Submitted Jul 4, 2024|From forex.com|4 comments
If we look at data over the last couple of weeks, it is hard to argue that the US economy is not slowing. Core PCE and super core PCE surprised to the downside last week, and the soft ISM services report is the latest to bring into question whether ...