Made a nice profit today on GBP pre-news sentiment on four pairs. The strategy was to set a 15 stop and 50 pip target with a trailing stop of 15/16. I took 50% profit of each pair when I was sure that the stop loss had moved to above the opening ...

Pre-news sentiment - an alternative to news straddle?

Keeping it simple with only four pairs. See the consensus pre-news sentiment on all four EUR pairs in advance of the German economic sentiment.

Pre-news sentiment - an alternative to news straddle?

Talk about whipsaw! If you scored it was luck.

Central Banks & Big Players

Another very good example of strong pre-news sentiment being a good indicator of a news spike direction. This is UK CPI, and the first chart shows the pre-news sentiment. image This second chart shows the news spike. image

Pre-news sentiment - an alternative to news straddle?

pre-news sentiment looks like it is predicting a downward spike for UK CPI.

Central Banks & Big Players

There was no 20 MA consensus prior to NFP and unemployment rate which meant that we had to wait for the release and use Henry Liu's retracement method. No consensus means we stay out until after the spike has retraced. image The upper chart shows ...

Pre-news sentiment - an alternative to news straddle?

ECB surprised us with a 25% interest rate today which had an immediate impact on all USD pairs. The interesting thing is that all 5M 20 MA's gave a good indication of the direction of the spike. See the results below and look at the colour of the ...

Pre-news sentiment - an alternative to news straddle?

ECB just changes its interest rate to 0.25% and blew all plans out of the water. Did anyone catch it?

Central Banks & Big Players

But that is at the same time as US advance GDP and US unemployment claims. Three news releases all at the same time. Isn't that a bit tricky?

Central Banks & Big Players

Neutral news on UK Manufacturing PMI caused a whipsaw double spike which took out stop losses. However, strong bullish pre-news sentiment for GBP gave good profits that were closed just prior to the news release. GBP/USD paved the way when price ...

Pre-news sentiment - an alternative to news straddle?

20 MA's on the 5M chart gave good indications for the move which was bullish for USD counter to forecast. Lesson = go with 20 MA indications. image

Pre-news sentiment - an alternative to news straddle?

UK Services PMI came out at 62.5 against a forecast of 60.4. Pre-news sentiment is shown on the chart by the 20 MA on all pairs with the exception of JPY due to a strong Yen. The consensus on all other MA's provided a good indication of the news ...

Pre-news sentiment - an alternative to news straddle?

UK construction PMI gave a good opportunity to catch a few pips on all pairs. A weak USD dominated the market which influenced the strong EUR against GBP. However, the 20 MA on GBP/USD and JPY gave good indications for a positive spike on the news ...

Pre-news sentiment - an alternative to news straddle?

Another example of when NOT to trade. Here is the chart for US employment change at 12.30 GMT 31/10/13. No consensus. USD is weak but EUR is weaker. The neutral release created no spike with the exception of CAD (bottom right chart) which was ...

Pre-news sentiment - an alternative to news straddle?

Yes, it can be used for all high impact news releases on all major pairs. Check out Henry's web site here:

Central Banks & Big Players

I used Henry Liu's news spike retracement method which is well suited to FOMC statements. Wait for the main spike to retrace about 50% and enter when volatility is slowed down. See the attached composite chart where I have measured profit pips from ...

Central Banks & Big Players

US ADP non-farm employment change 12.15 GMT and core CPI 12.30 GMT. Weak USD but no consensus. No trade. image

Pre-news sentiment - an alternative to news straddle?

Pre-news sentiment leading up to the news release on US core retail sales, PPI and retail sales was USD bullish from 10.30, 11.00 am with the exception of CAD. Entering at about 11.00 am would have realised a good return. PA reversed at 12.00 when ...

Synchronised basket trading

Pre-news sentiment leading up to the news release on US core retail sales, PPI and retail sales was USD bullish from 10.30, 11.00 am with the exception of CAD. Entering at about 11.00 am would have realised a good return. PA reversed at 12.00 when ...

Pre-news sentiment - an alternative to news straddle?