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- Submitted Feb 17, 2025|From forex.com
It has been two weeks since we saw USD/CAD surge to a 22-year high, amid a flurry of tariff doom-and-gloom headlines. But that 22-year high was short-lived, with a clear momentum shift resulting in a -4.3% from said high. And I suspect there could ...
- Submitted Feb 17, 2025|From forex.com
It was the first Monday in three weeks to not kick-start the week with a bang. The US public holiday to celebrate President’s Day kept volatility relatively suppressed, compared to the flurry of headlines surrounding tariffs and DeepSeek AI seen on ...
- Submitted Feb 6, 2025|From forex.com
183k jobs were added to the US economy in January, according to the ADP employment report. And that is a solid 25k above the 148 forecast, or 61k above the initial estimate of 122k. December’s figure was also upwardly revised by 64k to 176k, making ...
- Submitted Feb 4, 2025|From forex.com
Appetite for risk was given a bump on Tuesday following Trump and Trudeau’s last-minute deal to defer Canada’s 25% tariffs for 30 days. It stopped short of a full risk-on recovery though, perhaps because the threat of tariffs still linger and that ...
- Submitted Jan 30, 2025|From forex.com
The Canadian dollar and Mexican Peso were on the ropes late Thursday after President Trump said Canada and Mexico will be hit with 25% tariffs as soon as Saturday. Oil prices are a factor in tariff determination according to Trump, who added that ...
- Submitted Jan 16, 2025|From forex.com|2 comments
The US dollar was dragged lower by yields again on Thursday after FOMC Waller said he sees a path for the Fed to cut rates in the first half of the year. The US dollar index was lower for a third day, the 2-year yield was down for a fourth and ...
- Submitted Dec 18, 2024|From forex.com
The Fed delivered their widely expected 25bp cut and, in line with my own expectation, slowed their pace of easing to two cuts in 2025. Yet market reactions suggest this development was not priced in. Nasdaq futures suffered their worst day in five ...
- Submitted Dec 17, 2024|From forex.com
The Fed are expected to deliver their final 25bp cut of the year on Wednesday. With market pricing, economists and myself in agreement, the contrarian reaction would require a surprise hold. Yet I suspect the Fed are likely to take the opportunity ...
- Submitted Dec 16, 2024|From forex.com
The US dollar index formed a 3-week bullish reversal pattern last week called a morning star reversal. It seems the market wants to drive the dollar above its 14-month high set three weeks ago. Traders were long the USD by $24.6 billion last week ...
- Submitted Dec 15, 2024|From forex.com
There are five central bank meetings this week (US, Japan, UK, Norway and Sweden), but it will of course be the FOMC meeting that is likely to have the biggest impact on AUD/USD. The consensus is for the Fed to cut by 25bp and hold in January. Fed ...
- Submitted Dec 12, 2024|From forex.com
Inflationary pressures are alive and well, with US producer prices surprising to the upside, helping the US dollar climb for a fifth day and win top spot for currency strength on Thursday. Core producer prices remained at a 20-month high of 3.4% y/y ...
- Submitted Dec 11, 2024|From forex.com
I outlined a bearish case for AUD/JPY on the 27th November, suggesting prices could at least be headed back towards the August low just above the 90 handle. Or even as low as 83. Momentum has turned lower after a 3-wave rally stalled beneath the ...
- Submitted Dec 8, 2024|From forex.com
table Last week’s GDP figures have certainly rekindled hopes of an RBA cut. Or to be exact, three cuts. By Friday’s close, three 25bp cuts were fully priced into the RBA’s cash rate futures curve. The first is estimated to arrive in April, ...
- Submitted Dec 5, 2024|From forex.com
The US dollar has been on a strong rally in recent weeks, which has helped USD/CHF achieve a 7% rise from its September low. This surely pleases the SNB, who desire a weaker Swiss franc and were rumoured to have been intervening whenever USD/CHF ...
- Submitted Dec 2, 2024|From forex.com|2 comments
President-elect Trump upped the ante with his own tariff threats, this time quoting a hefty 100% tariff on BRIC countries if they fail to commit to not creating a new currency to dethrone the US dollar. BRICS countries include Brazil, Russia, India, ...
- Submitted Dec 2, 2024|From forex.com
It seems that large speculators were right to pile into long bets last week, given the revived hopes of a 25bp hike from the BOJ this month. The yen was the strongest major currency last week, as it finally saw a decent upswing in line with my bias ...
- Submitted Dec 1, 2024|From forex.com
I’m not getting any strong directional clues from the change of positioning this week, although it is tilted slightly towards the bearish side given the stronger rise of net-short exposure among asset managers. It is possible we may see AUD/USD ...
- Submitted Nov 26, 2024|From forex.com|2 comments
While AUD/JPY has already fallen by around 9% from its year-to-date high, it remains firmly in the top quartile of a sideways range that began in the mid-nineties. Focusing on this millennium, the cross has seen two significant tops in 2007 and ...
- Submitted Nov 24, 2024|From forex.com
It was a good week for Australian dollar bulls, with the local currency rising above most major currencies (except CAD). We may have seen an important swing low for AUD/USD, given the return of open interest alongside rising prices last week (and ...
- Submitted Nov 20, 2024|From forex.com
The US dollar regained its bullish stride on Wednesday, snapping the 3-day bearish streak which dared to defy its strong trend. Odds of Fed cuts next year continued to diminish, to the point that even a 25bp cut in December hangs in the balance. Fed ...