No problem. I just tidied up something I had done for my own amusement some time ago.

It's A Heart-Mind Game... Are You Ready?

I've attached a spreadsheet so you can play about for yourselves. There is a grid of random results (using Excel rand() function) 25 columns of 100 random results. Each column is a sequence of trades and at the bottom is the total for that column ...

It's A Heart-Mind Game... Are You Ready?

So I should have said how I got the standard deviation numbers. Basically I just used Excel to do a simple Monte-Carlo. by creating a table 100x100 of random results. So I would not take the figures as exact. I just wanted to point out that the ...

It's A Heart-Mind Game... Are You Ready?

But immediately you run into the 'Fooled by Randomness' problem. Most people don't have an understanding of how variable trading results can be. Take a simple example 60% winners, average win 95, average loss 105 (Basically I'm using 100 but ...

It's A Heart-Mind Game... Are You Ready?

It wasn't optimal in my backtesting (in fact I think if you look on this thread I may have posted that several years back). Because DIBs is really a trend-following method, the profits come from a small number of outlier trades, trades which make 5R ...

The DIBS Method... No Free Lunch continues

Currency futures and spot forex move practically tick for tick the same and the charts will look identical. There are 3 reasons why your charts look different - Currency futures are typically xxxUSD while the normally normal Swissy quote is USDCHF ...

Do you guys find that forex trading sucks?

>> If I set up charts with fibs, rsi's, and candle patters Start by realising that most of what is called TA is voodoo. If making money in the market was really as simple as buying when RSI(9) < 20 or being able to recognise a hammer pattern, ...

How rookie a queston is this?

So you are saying that you would have sat thru an earlier 100 pip reversal but somehow within 19 pips of the top you knew the move was over?

Why exactly do EMA crossover systems not work?

Here's my advice - Markets are range bound 70-80% of the time. Step back a bit and try to identify ranges. Areas where price moves back and forth between 2 horizontal levels. When the market moves outside that range then the market may be trending. ...

What if I reversed all my orders?

Why do you think that is? Are your stops too tight?

What if I reversed all my orders?

Agreed they do work. But the two qualifiers are key. 1 - diversified across many uncorrelated markets 2 - long term e.g 5+ years You can't apply this to a few currencies and expect to make money. You don't give a CAGR figure in your backtests but I ...

Why exactly do EMA crossover systems not work?

But what is your edge? What is it that you know that most other traders do not? Why do you think that a candlestick pattern will make you money. Because it said so in a book? Think about it this way - you are asking for another trader somewhere to ...

What if I reversed all my orders?

I did see there was another rule but by hand its too much work to check and the long at 85 would meet the additional criteria. By adding another rule the system is not an MA cross since your criteria filters out some of the trades that the MA cross ...

Why exactly do EMA crossover systems not work?

Mr Breakout suggested a 13,39 SMA so I marked those on a 2011 Yen chart because its a good illustration of what I meant. If you look you'll see that the Yen had some monster trends but a 13,39 SMA cross gets hopelessly whipsawed and amazingly gets ...

Why exactly do EMA crossover systems not work?

The backtest results are interesting but I think everyone knows that diversified trend following systems are profitable. But most people on FF are not trading a basket of futures. They are trading a small number of currency pairs. What the backtest ...

Why exactly do EMA crossover systems not work?

What point are you making? Physical laws are derived empirically. Newton's laws and after that Einstein's General Relativity both allow you to make calculations about gravity but neither explain gravity. Physics explains lots of things, like why the ...

Price action is dumb, and you're lazy for thinking otherwise

Its good that you tested it and there is nothing odd about it. Most things written down about patterns and indicators have no statistical backing. People who follow 'common trading rules' or patterns deserve to lose money if they don't backtest for ...

Price action is dumb, and you're lazy for thinking otherwise

Taking a more optimistic point - How do you know if you were not just unlucky? What is your expected win% ? What is a typical losing streak? For example, someone with a 50% win/loss taking 250 trades can expect 1 run of 8 consecutive losses in those ...

What if I reversed all my orders?

1. Any systematic system relies on some statistical property of the market. There is no guarantee that the property will continue into the future and even if it does continue if might not be strong enough to build a profitable system around. 2. Its ...

Why exactly do EMA crossover systems not work?