Submitted Jul 3, 2023|From blog.hycmlab.com

On Tuesday at 05:30 UK time, the RBA will be meeting and deciding on whether to hike rates or pause on rates. At the moment, the market is pretty much evenly split over what decision the RBA will make. At the end of last week, short-term interest ...

Submitted Jun 30, 2023|From blog.hycmlab.com

This was a week where the market continued to move in light of Powell’s recent insistence that two more rate hikes from the Fed are likely. This kept stocks pressured for the first half of the week, and month-end and half-year flows meant traders ...

Submitted Jun 28, 2023|From blog.hycmlab.com|1 comment

Central banks worldwide are facing the challenge of elevated core inflation. Last week, the Bank of England raised rates by 50bps to 5% due to persistently high core inflation at 7.1% y/y, triple its target. The ECB is also struggling with core ...

Submitted Jun 26, 2023|From blog.hycmlab.com

Last week the SNB increased inflation to 1.75% from 1.50% and signaled that further rate hikes were likely. Headline inflation in Switzerland is the second lowest in the G20 at 2.2% y/y. However, although the SNB acknowledged this falling inflation ...

Submitted Jun 23, 2023|From blog.hycmlab.com

The recent RBA meeting surprised markets with another unexpected 25 bps rate hike. With headline inflation at 7% y/y and core inflation at 6.6% y/y, the RBA took action to address inflation quickly. Market projections indicate that the RBA is ...

Submitted Jun 19, 2023|From blog.hycmlab.com

Examining the ‘skip’ and Powell’s explanation. Heading into the Federal Reserve’s latest decision many pondered whether the decision would be a pause, a skip, or a hold on rates. While the announcement appeared to be a skip, Fed Chair Powell ...

Submitted Jun 9, 2023|From blog.hycmlab.com

Some candlestick price patterns are well known, like shooting stars, hammer reversal bars, and engulfing bars. However, some of the less well-known candlestick price patterns are worth noting when reading price charts. This is particularly helpful ...

Submitted Jun 9, 2023|From blog.hycmlab.com

This week, the RBA surprised markets with another unexpected 25 bps hike. With headline inflation at 7% y/y and core inflation firm at 6.5% y/y, the RBA has acted to try and bring down inflation fast. Current market pricing sees the RBA reaching a ...

Submitted Jun 6, 2023|From blog.hycmlab.com

Heading into the recent OPEC+ meeting, oil prices faced challenges primarily due to supply constraints rather than demand dynamics. In response, Saudi Arabia took proactive measures to address this issue by reducing its supply to 9 million bpd. ...

Submitted May 24, 2023|From blog.hycmlab.com

Gold has been pressured recently by USD gains, and rising real yields. This has resulted in gold pulling back recently from recent highs and moving back towards key daily support levels. Many analysts are expecting the case to remain bullish for ...

Submitted May 9, 2023|From blog.hycmlab.com

The US CPI print will be important this week to see whether the Fed really has reached the end of its hiking cycle. The print that the Fed wants to see is the headline continues to fall and, perhaps, even more importantly, the core reading to fall ...

Submitted Apr 25, 2023|From blog.hycmlab.com

Bloomberg recently wrote a helpful piece summarising reasons why professional investors think the USD may be weaker going forward. This is due to the Fed reaching the peak in its rate cycle, the strength of the Yuan and the JPY, as well as a ...

Submitted Apr 12, 2023|From blog.hycmlab.com|14 comments

Markets are expecting the Fed to hike rates by 25bps on May 3 to 5.125% from the current rate of 4.875%. However, one of the crucial factors for that rate decision will be how the US is managing inflation. This is what Wednesday’s print at 13:30 UK ...

Submitted Mar 31, 2023|From blog.hycmlab.com

Next week both the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand meet. The RBA meets early Tuesday morning on the 4th of April at 05:30 UK time and the RBNZ meets early Wednesday morning at 03:00 UK time. The RBA is expected to pause ...

Submitted Mar 30, 2023|From blog.hycmlab.com

The fall in real yields alongside the fall in the USD surrounding rapid US rate re-pricing on the recent banking woes has been a great catalyst for precious metals. Gold is currently up 7% on the month and silver is up over 10%. Silver has some ...

Submitted Mar 29, 2023|From blog.hycmlab.com

On Friday we have the US CORE PCE print. The personal consumption expenditures print measures the spending on goods and services by the citizens of the United States. Around 2012, the PCE index became the main inflation index used by the Federal ...

Submitted Mar 22, 2023|From blog.hycmlab.com

video The Bank of England meets on Thursday and there are signs of disinflationary forces being already at work. UK headline and core inflation have been falling from October highs of last year, so the BoE may be inclined to hold rates on Thursday ...

Submitted Mar 17, 2023|From blog.hycmlab.com|2 comments

Next week the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and Swiss National Bank all meet. This time last week the SVB crisis was just dropping onto markets and since that time the decision for central banks has just got a lot harder. The fallout from the ...

Submitted Mar 16, 2023|From blog.hycmlab.com|2 comments

In the space of just a few days, the interest rate pricing for central banks across the world has rapidly fallen due to the SVB crisis. The fears of contagion, the action from the US to backstop depositors, and the sharp moves in bond markets have ...