Why would the Fed need or want to liquidate $5 trillion in the short or medium term? It would be sheer stupidity for them to try such a thing, also unnecessary and counter-productive in relation to their objectives. The housing of these bonds on the ...

The Really Useless Thread

A small bounce in cable, as supportive comments from Trump are released (he gave an exclusive interview to leading Brexiteer, Michael Gove - who is a journalist at the London Times), saying Brexit will be "great" and inferring that a UK-US trade ...

The Really Useless Thread

China is using its foreign exchange reserves to help manage a gradual depreciation of the Yuan and avoid a speculative-induced, hard-landing form of devaluation, which would export a deflationary tidal wave and great instability to the global ...

The Really Useless Thread

So much for "draining the swamp", eh? And after all his criticisms of Hilary's paid speeches for GS, he loads up with senior ex-Goldman personnel in key positions... Great for equities in the short-term, particularly financials and other cyclical ...

The Really Useless Thread

If spot were around 1.07 and the nearest significant expiries were 1.06 and 1.08, then I wouldn't expect the options market to be a meaningful driver on the direction of spot until it gets to within 40 pips of either of these two levels on the day ...

The Really Useless Thread

A lot can happen tomorrow with the ECB, meaning the market won't be placing any significance on the 1.06 strikes expiring on Friday, unless spot is trading within, say, 40 pips of 1.06 on Friday morning, following a low volatility late session in NY ...

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Occasionally, there will be a talk of "a large barrier or digital expiring", but most large expiring FX Options that are reported on various sites relate to vanilla strikes in the OTC market, using trade data reported to DTCC at inception, which ...

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On a day light in data and any significant market moving events, such as today, a big option expiry can take on significance for very short-term players in FX, acting as a magnet for spot (EURUSD traded at 1.0746 at 2:57 London time, which was 3 ...

The Really Useless Thread

A strong session finish for Cable, which has benefited in recent sessions from increased hopes of a softer Brexit, supportive flows on GBPJPY* and EURGBP - with the market showing a strong preference for sterling ahead of the Italian referendum. ...

Cable Update (GBPUSD)

Reaction of cable, you mean? Well done. Glad you're doing well.

Cable Update (GBPUSD)

Recovering? Nothing to recover from. I've been on the losing side of many elections in the UK and now I can add a referendum to that list. Such is life.

Cable Update (GBPUSD)

Very GBP-supportive comments from Brexit minister, David Davis, talking up a soft exit, with the possibility mooted of the UK paying a fee to retain full access to the single market.

Cable Update (GBPUSD)

If not now, then it will come soon. The BOJ hold (off the top of my head) 40% of all JGBs - these will never be sold back to the open market, meaning a de-facto monetising of debt has already occurred. Helicopter money will be a more open and ...

The Really Useless Thread

Tomorrow's inflation data may cause some movement, but the actual data that the BOE is waiting for will be contained in Quarterly Inflation Report, which is next released on 4th August, the same date at the MPC decision. The data released tomorrow ...

Cable Update (GBPUSD)

Nothing to do with this. Bounce is due to M&A flows, with the news of the £24bn takeover of ARM Holdings by Japan's Softbank. Markets are attempting to price in whether sterling's depreciation will trigger more such flows in the coming months, as UK ...

Cable Update (GBPUSD)

There is some talk that a significant reason for the MPC remaining on hold was the naming of Philip Hammond as the new Chancellor (the others being lack of firm data showing impact on economy and growth from Brexit, and the short and medium term ...

The Really Useless Thread

The sharper the better, in terms of the options, as implied vol will rocket on any big downside move (at a greater velocity to how implied volatility moves lower on upside moves). Great opportunities in these markets for the nimble.

The Really Useless Thread

Agreed that hawkish comments from the Fed should put breaks on this rally, which is overdone, in my opinion (expectations of aggressive CB policy responses are very high). The buying of Puts is giving me downside protection at a cheap price.

The Really Useless Thread

I'm looking at buying out-of-the-money Puts for December expiry, as a way of hedging long exposure (leaving me free to ride the trend in the short-term) and a way of buying implied volatility (vega) at very low levels.

The Really Useless Thread

Agreed. The very real problems in China haven't disappeared - one just needs look at the trade data from this week. Credit in China is in total bubble territory, with official figures placing credit growth at 12%, with unofficial figures from ...

The Really Useless Thread