May get a bearish engulfing on the hourly.

The Swamp

I'll be exiting shorts at 1.1275 if it gets there. Daily support at 73. Will enter small longs around 1.1275 and build if it goes in my favour. Start shorting again around 1.1355 and exit all longs. This is my plan, how it turns out who knows lol

The Swamp

Took 1/4 of my shorts off at a loss. Lets see how Sunday opens. Monday is a bank holiday for most. Happy New Year all.

The Swamp

Agreed. It always happens. I always know sooner or later a batch of shorts will be a loss. Thanks for all your insights this year, it's greatly appreciated.

The Swamp

Also got an ABCD on the 4 hour. Close above 1.1380 and I've had enough of my short drawdown and its time to exit.

The Swamp

I'm taking this opportunity to close half my shorts from higher and will reload. Enough of this jiggery pokery Watch it drop like a stone now!

The Swamp

Yep. Under yesterday's low is not out of the question now.

The Swamp

And back we go. All timeframes bearish again for me. Anyone would think this is done on purpose to confuse us I think under 1.13 would be good for today.

The Swamp

We are approaching the end of the shorts, maybe. HH on the daily (for me 1.13830) and I accept its over - for now.

The Swamp

Is this just jiggery pokery lol closed a few of my shorts due to trailing. added 1.1350 and will add if it continiues.

The Swamp

Not a good looking 4hr!

The Swamp

You are right. We need a close below 1.1290, quite a bit of support there...

The Swamp

Hourly close above 1.1360 is my line in the sand. It’s getting close. But until then I’m happy to be short.

The Swamp

I have a nice little script I wrote year ago based on weekly fib pivots. Last 4 years: Probability of hitting R38: 17% Probability of hitting S61: 37% Last 20 years: R38 18.4% S61: 36% These are the probabilities because S38 has already been hit.

The Swamp

I have 1.1350 ish stronger resistance than 1.13 support or 1.1270

The Swamp

Maybe its just me, but I cannot buy eur/usd atm. Daily trend is down, weekly trend is down, 4h and 1h are up but weak. I'll keep shorting this until 4h swing is above 1.1385 ish. US10y +1.499 DE10y -0.335

The Swamp

This is sometimes more important that the NFP numbers...

The Swamp

I will try a small long at 1.1350 - it's almost done its weekly range in a day, and its approaching monthly range so consider this high risk!

The Swamp

I have no support zones left I would expect profit taking tomorrow and a bounce to short again...

The Swamp

Exiting all shorts at 1.15, should it get there. Happy to try some longs 1.1492. weekly ADR on my charts.

The Swamp