You should be aware that Trading is a zero-sum game, which in very simplified terms means that for your trade to work, it requires someone (or lots of people or one big-player) to think the opposite to you. After yesterday's mindings from Jerome, ...

ADP National Employment Report: US Private Sector Employment Increased by 242,000 Jobs in...

As energy is at the centre of everything, I can't make up my mind if this statement is incredibly brave or just plain stupid.

BOE's Tenreyro: Energy may not lead to persistent inflation

GBP has improved because the market PERCEIVES that any removal of theoretical trade frictions/restrictions and/or improved cordiality and compromise will result in an improved GDP/economy. Inflation is another matter, as is the net result of this ...

Brexit deal hailed as ‘turning point’ for Northern Ireland, but could still face opposition in...

I suspect that we agree on almost everything but for some finer detail. I used the phrase 'patterns' in a global context when perhaps I should not have: it's more to do with a confluence of a cocktail of indicators.

ECB's President Lagarde: Don't doubt about our determination to achieve 2% inflation

Then we can politely agree to disagree about some of the detail even if I definitely agree about the Laws of the Universe with regard to movement away from and reversion to the 'mean' or, as you prefer to use, the probabilistic curve. I DO agree ...

ECB's President Lagarde: Don't doubt about our determination to achieve 2% inflation

I agree and disagree but you do sound well in control of your own dominion and learned parameters. It's not true that there are NO patterns. There ARE 'patterns' that are defined more by habitual Support and Resistance indicators, detectable ...

ECB's President Lagarde: Don't doubt about our determination to achieve 2% inflation

I confess, my brain hurts. Like a computer unable to solve a dilemma, it crashes. I have tried to make sense of this statement: "ECB'S PRESIDENT LAGARDE: I CAN'T THINK OF SCENARIOS WHERE A 50 BPS HIKE WOULD NOT HAPPEN UNLESS THEY'RE QUITE EXTREME." ...

ECB's President Lagarde: Don't doubt about our determination to achieve 2% inflation

The JOLTs wasn't, hence my comment. If vacancies still increased then inflationary pressures remain.

US Manufacturing PMI at 47.4%; January 2023 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business

. One data plot UP and one DOWN. A "mixed bag", as they say and make of it what you will.

US Manufacturing PMI at 47.4%; January 2023 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business

Well said.

Gross Domestic Product, Fourth Quarter and Year 2022 (Advance Estimate)

Why would you think that the MM's are ever NOT 'At It'? It's how they make their money. Bigger organisations need bigger income to survive. The difference is that, with their very deep pockets, they have a different reward/risk ratio outlook to the ...

Gross Domestic Product, Fourth Quarter and Year 2022 (Advance Estimate)

"Everyone on here never listens". Wow! That's a pretty damning and 'lofty' viewpoint. Someone asks for some insight and you slap them down? That's not very 'open'. You may not want to take time to provide an explanation, and that's absolutely fine; ...

Gross Domestic Product, Fourth Quarter and Year 2022 (Advance Estimate)

Certainly a foreseeable future plateau. The annual RoI has decreased 2 months in a row even though December's retail demands could well have provided additional inflationary pressures. The monthly figure is the lowest m-o-m since last January, ...

Consumer price inflation, UK: December 2022

You have my sympathies if your butt hole has gained independence from you!

Powell: Panel on "Central Bank Independence and the Mandate—Evolving Views"

Surely something got lost in translation: Does the idea of, or even the word "cooperation" really exist in China? And surely the best way to start to help the region would be to remove Putin's crutch?

China’s Xi: China is to boost cooperation with Central and Eastern Europe - TV

Judging by the market reaction, I don't think that the market thought it obvious that she'd think it obvious.

Lagarde: Obvious that we should expect 50 bps hikes for period of time

Agreed. The start of the slide was the thinking that Inflation was 'Transitory'. Maybe they've moved on from Just Transitory to Annual Transitory. .

Monetary Policy Summary, December 2022

I think your conclusion about volatility in response to the less sensitive indicators on actual future interest rates is a fair one. But any hypothesis has to be tested by actual data points, so we shall see. The FED has much more influence on ...

Monetary Policy Summary, December 2022

Yes, you're not wrong. Entering the territory of complete conjecture, I suppose one could argue that the BoE can assume that because nearly all the inflation generators are actually global and largely beyond the BoE's control, that they can then ...

Monetary Policy Summary, December 2022

Who knows?! The parameters of the vote are only in regard to a comparison with the current rate: either Increase, Decrease or Hold the current rate. There's no dimension of voting on a figure to be applied in the event of an increase or decrease, ...

Monetary Policy Summary, December 2022