That'll be a surprise to many. It's way too late in the scheme of things but, give credit where it's due, they have at least, and at last, indicated that they intend to react to the current sticky CPI.

Bank Rate increased to 5% - June 2023

What a lot of "Guests" are commenting on this thread: that's intriguing. Clearly UK inflation is sticky. If the unthinkable happens and BoE pauses, GBP will take a battering. If BoE raises by 0.25%, as the majority suspect, then GBP may still fall, ...

Consumer price inflation, UK: May 2023

The USD will prevail only so long as others are prepared to trust it as a reserve of wealth. Being a FIAT (yes, I know all other currencies are too, at the moment!) it is an illusory dam holding in the waters of trust but if one piece of the dam ...

US: After Debt Ceiling Deal, Markets Will Face Heavy Issuance of Treasuries as Attention Turns...

. And do so for the USD or the other in the pair?!!

The Employment Situation -- May 2023

No. As previously stated, it made no difference to me. My own Alg works off technical analysis. I just thought it'd be useful to some, and certainly worth 'debating', to point out how unreliable the data must be for those that rely on it. There's no ...

The Employment Situation -- May 2023

There's disarray in these figures, surely? Either the forecast is rubbish or both last and this month's are rubbish. They are SO out of whack that it brings the data into disrepute. Personally it matters not a jot to me but it must do for a lot of ...

The Employment Situation -- May 2023

Summary: lagging data suggests the economy is still running hot.

US: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 278,000 Jobs in...

There are 2 ways to overcome fear in trading: 1) Stick to your Process, so long as your process is truly, genuinely, absolutely proven to be successful by YOURSELF over a long time. 2) If you can't develop a process as per 1) then 2) don't trade!

How to Manage Fear when Trading?

Yes, I agree that there will have been a shock-effect in the year after the referendum, ripples during the protracted years of negotiations and then real-effect in the year of actual Brexit completion, whatever method of measure one relies upon. ...

Consumer price inflation, UK: April 2023

You have me wrong re Brexit. I agree that it will have had/has an effect but not in orders of magnitude with regard to RoI. I am NOT making any political stance on Brexit with this. I AM making a statistical point and the fact that I'd rather people ...

Consumer price inflation, UK: April 2023

You're clearly transfixed by Brexit. I'd urge you to try to break the gilded glasses but I suspect that's a lost cause. We absolutely agree about Governments, the money they pump and the natural consequences. Whilst the CB's can argue against such ...

Consumer price inflation, UK: April 2023

To add to the many valid, good points already made above, I'd add a few more, global pressures. 1) The energy required to provide the future energy infrastructure is in itself creating higher demand for current energy formats. The speed at which ...

Consumer price inflation, UK: April 2023

Whether Bailey is any more or less competent than any other CB, now or past, is up for debate but in context he chairs a committee. He's not a sole arbiter. Inflation is very unlikely indeed to be controlled if interest rates remain behind the curve ...

Consumer price inflation, UK: April 2023

There's nothing wrong with your analysis and I'm not arguing with you (other than, inevitably, some datapoints used for the compilation of probability and therefore S.D's will be much more or much less historical). I merely state that whatever CPI ...

BoE’s Bailey: Inflation Has Turned The Corner

It could be anything and not worth predicting in % terms. I wouldn't argue with whatever analysis you focused on. As with any of the CB Heads, their words get analysed to the nth degree, so Bailey played his own risk/reward ratio with those ...

BoE’s Bailey: Inflation Has Turned The Corner

. Umm, "pathetic sight"? "Sight" was intended and I'm being very thick with my interpretative analysis or was that a misfire? Re: predictions, I'm with you on that, particularly IF it involves % points. However, a broad-brush ...

BoE’s Bailey: Inflation Has Turned The Corner

I suspect it HAS turned a corner but that doesn't mean it's returning to the point of departure.

BoE’s Bailey: Inflation Has Turned The Corner

I understand the principle of your comment about real differential rates between CPI and Interest rates but just to be factually correct, the last UK CPI was for March and was 8.9% (decreasing). The CPI figure is a 'lagging' data point and the ...

GDP monthly estimate, UK: March 2023

I stand by my assertion in the current circumstances and by my thoughts about the use of the word 'good'. Currency valuations are all about relativity against a whole host of variables. Some variables rise to prominence in one circumstance and are ...

US consumer price growth falls to below 5% for the first time in two years

Traders are reacting to what it means for the expectation in the FED's next moves, not what inflation is, either nominally or in real terms. The word 'good' being used as an adjective with inflation maybe an accident but if not then it's bizarre. To ...

US consumer price growth falls to below 5% for the first time in two years