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      The Trouble With Cheap Oil
      Submitted Mar 27, 2025      |From energyandcapital.com

      If your oil senses are tingling with prices in the $60/bbl range, don’t ignore them. You aren’t alone getting those tiny alarms going off in the back of your mind; some of the biggest firms on Wall Street are starting to whisper. They know as well ...

      Rates Spark: Still steeper curves
      Submitted Mar 27, 2025      |From think.ing.com

      US Treasuries sniff an inflation / price-rise effect from tariffs as the front and centre issue. Curves continue to steepen – in the US driven by an edge higher in long-end rates, while in the EUR a more dovish ECB pricing is in, on the back of the ...

      Barkin: Inflation Expectations Loosen, Not De-Anchored
      Submitted Mar 27, 2025      |From @financialjuice

      Barkin: Inflation Expectations Loosen, Not De-Anchored Barkin: Tariffs Not Expected to Have Only Temporary Effect on Prices Barkin: Less Confident Lowered Sentiment Will Impact Consumer Spending, Not Yet Seeing it in Credit Card Data Barkin dampened business demand would most likely be seen in capital spending and hiring Fed Barkin: my instinct on auto tariffs is that the top line number will not be the increase that is faced by consumers given competition

      Barkin: Driving through Economic Fog
      Submitted Mar 27, 2025      |From richmondfed.org

      Thank you for having me today. I am honored to be a part of the H. Parker Willis Lecture series. As you likely know, Willis was instrumental in drafting the Federal Reserve Act, which created the Federal Reserve System as we know it. I think it’s fair to say we all owe him a great deal. I, for example, owe him my job. To keep that job, let me note before I begin that the views I share today are mine alone and not necessarily those of anyone else on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) or in the Federal Reserve System. Over the years, you’ve hosted an impressive slate of Federal Reserve leaders as part of this series, including two other Richmond Fed presidents. My background is a bit atypical for a member of the FOMC. I am not a Ph.D. economist. I spent 30 years at McKinsey and Co, helping firms make decisions on growth and restructuring, compensation and pricing. I served as CFO and ran our offices in the South, meaning I made a lot of those same decisions myself. So, I approach my role as a practitioner rather than a researcher. As a practitioner, as well as a policymaker, I’ve seen that the beliefs and outlook of consumers and businesses help drive the economy; what they believe influences when they hire, fire, switch jobs, make major investments or purchases and raise wages or prices. All of these decisions are sensitive to expectations about the future. I want to spend my time today focusing on how these beliefs and expectations, which I’ll refer to as “sentiment,” are affecting today’s economic outlook. Let’s start at the end of 2024. At that time, conditions looked rosy. GDP had grown 2.5 percent in 2024, a healthy level. Unemployment was at 4.1 percent, near most estimates of its natural rate. And the 12-month Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index had come down considerably, to 2.6 percent from its peak of 7.2 percent in June 2022. RICHMOND FED'S BARKIN/WASH & LEE: JUST THOSE TARIFFS ALREADY SPECIFIED AMOUNT TO ALMOST FOUR TIMES AS MUCH AS IN 2018; COULD AFFECT PRICES #Barkin #FederalReserve #economy RICHMOND FED'S BARKIN: CURRENT MODERATELY RESTRICTIVE STANCE IS A GOOD PLACE TO BE, IF CONDITIONS SHIFT FED CAN ADJUST BARKIN: IN CURRENT ENVIRONMENT HARD TO IMAGINE ECONOMY BREAKS TOWARDS MORE HIRING

      BofA raises gold price forecasts for 2025, 2026
      Submitted Mar 27, 2025      |From kitco.com

      Bank of America (BofA) has raised its gold period average forecasts for this year and next, while highlighting that uncertainty arising from US trade policies will continue to lend support to prices in the near-term. BofA now expects gold to trade ...

      Oil Prices Rise On Improving Market Sentiment
      Submitted Mar 27, 2025      |From oilprice.com

      Oil prices are looking to finish the week in the green, with the pessimism that dominated the markets in the early part of the year beginning to dissipate. Brent crude for May delivery was trading at $73.67 per barrel at 11.50 am ET in Thursday’s ...