Submitted Apr 4, 2025|From @zerohedge|2 comments

*POWELL: DON'T WANT TO RESPOND TO ELECTED OFFICIALS' COMMENTS POWELL: UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH POWELL: FED DOES NOT HAVE A PROBABILITY FORECAST OF RECESSION, BUT OUTSIDE FORECASTS HAVE RAISED THAT PROBABILITY Fed's Powell: Tariffs are higher than almost all forecasters expected, but we still don't know where it will come to rest. *POWELL: FED TRIES TO STAY AWAY FROM THE POLITICAL PROCESS *POWELL: FED DRIVEN BY ANALYSIS, CAREFUL THOUGHT, DEBATE *POWELL: FED IS NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR TRADE, IMMIGRATION POLICY

Submitted Apr 4, 2025|From federalreserve.gov|2 comments

Thank you for having me here today. Monetary policy is more effective when the public understands what we are doing and why. Through your work, journalists like you help promote that greater understanding. I am sure this room full of reporters does not lack for questions to ask. Before addressing a few of those, I will briefly summarize the outlook for the economy and monetary policy. At the Fed, we are squarely focused on achieving the dual-mandate goals Congress has given us of maximum employment and stable prices. While uncertainty is high and downside risks have risen, the economy is still in a good place. The incoming data show solid growth, a labor market in balance, and inflation running much closer to, but still above, our 2 percent objective. Recent Economic Data After a couple of years of solid growth, many forecasters have anticipated somewhat slower growth this year. The initial reading for first-quarter GDP will be released later this month. The limited hard data are consistent with a slower but still solid growth outlook. At the same time, surveys of households and businesses report dimming expectations and higher uncertainty about the outlook. Survey respondents point to the effects of new federal policies, especially related to trade. We are closely watching this tension between the hard and soft data. As the new policies and their likely economic effects become clearer, we will have a better sense of their implications for the economy and for monetary policy. Looking across many indicators, the labor market appears to be broadly in balance and is not a significant source of inflationary pressure. This morning's jobs report shows the unemployment rate at 4.2 percent in March, still in the low range where it has held since early last year. Over the first quarter, payrolls grew by an average of 150,000 jobs a month. The combination of low layoffs, moderating job growth, and slowing labor force growth has kept the unemployment rate broadly stable. Turning to the other leg of our *POWELL: ECONOMY STILL IN GOOD PLACE DESPITE HIGH UNCERTAINTY *POWELL: RISKS OF HIGHER UNEMPLOYMENT, HIGHER INFLATION ELEVATED *POWELL: ECONOMIC IMPACT OF TARIFFS LIKELY LARGER THAN EXPECTED Fed's Powell: The Fed is well-positioned to wait for greater clarity before considering policy adjustments. Fed's Powell: It's too soon to say what will be the appropriate path for monetary policy. Fed's Powell: Tariffs are likely to raise inflation in coming quarters. More persistent effects are possible.

Submitted Apr 4, 2025|From @realDonaldTrump|7 comments

This would be a PERFECT time for Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to cut Interest Rates. He is always “late,” but he could now change his image, and quickly. Energy prices are down, Interest Rates are down, Inflation is down, even Eggs are down 69%, and ...

Submitted Apr 4, 2025|From bls.gov|21 comments

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 228,000 in March, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, in social assistance, and in transportation and warehousing. Employment also increased in retail trade, partially reflecting the return of workers from a strike. Federal government employment declined. This news release presents statistics from two monthly surveys. The household survey measures labor force status, including unemployment, by demographic characteristics. The establishment survey measures nonfarm employment, hours, and earnings by industry. For more information about the concepts and statistical methodology used in these two surveys, see the Technical Note. Both the unemployment rate, at 4.2 percent, and the number of unemployed people, at 7.1 million, changed little in March. The unemployment rate has remained in a narrow range of 4.0 percent to 4.2 percent since May 2024. (See table A-1.) Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (3.8 percent), adult women (3.7 percent), teenagers (13.7 percent), Whites (3.7 percent), Blacks (6.2 percent), Asians (3.5 percent), and Hispanics (5.1 percent) showed little or no change in March. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.) US March Jobs Report: More noise than signal in the jobs report. Net change of 228K in total employment, unemployment rate of 4.2%, average hourly earnings up 0.3% m/m & 4% y/y. Big downward revision to 117K in the Feb report and a 41K two-month downward revision. It's a good… U.S. payrolls rise by 228,000 in March, but unemployment rate increases to 4.2% Job growth was stronger than expected in March, providing at least temporary reassurance that the labor market is stable, the Labor Department reported Friday. Nonfarm payrolls increased 228,000 for the month, up from the revised 117,000 in February and better than the Dow Jones estimate for 140,000, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. However, the unemployment rate moved up to 4.2%, higher than the 4.1% forecast as the labor force participation rate also increased. Though the headline number beat estimates, the report comes against a highly uncertain backdrop after President Donald Trump’s tariff announcement this week that has intensified fears of a global trade war that could damage economic growth. Stocks reacted little to the report, with futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average still off by more than 1,000 points while Treasury yields held sharply negative. Trump announced a flat duty of 10% against all tradi