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      Fed's Kugler: Tariffs will be consequential, already seeing some price increase
      Submitted Apr 7, 2025      |From @financialjuice|5 comments

      Fed's Kugler: New tariffs will be consequential, we have already started seeing some increase in prices. Fed's Kugler: For now, it's short-run inflation expectations have moved up. Long-run inflation expectations are well-anchored. Fed's Kugler: Consumer confidence is moderating, we need to pay attention to that. Fed's Kugler: I'm paying a lot of attention to labor markets. Fed's Kugler: I'm also paying attention to financial markets, conditions, and geopolitics.

      Trump: If China does not withdraw tariffs by April 8, US will impose 50% tariffs April 9
      Submitted Apr 7, 2025      |From @realDonaldTrump|76 comments

      Yesterday, China issued Retaliatory Tariffs of 34%, on top of their already record setting Tariffs, Non-Monetary Tariffs, Illegal Subsidization of companies, and massive long term Currency Manipulation, despite my warning that any country that Retaliates against the U.S. by issuing additional Tariffs, above and beyond their already existing long term Tariff abuse of our Nation, will be immediately met with new and substantially higher Tariffs, over and above those initially set. Therefore, if China does not withdraw its 34% increase above their already long term trading abuses by tomorrow, April 8th, 2025, the United States will impose ADDITIONAL Tariffs on China of 50%, effective April 9th. Additionally, all talks with China concerning their requested meetings with us will be terminated! Negotiations with other countries, which have also requested meetings, will begin taking place immediately. Thank you for your attention to this matter! *TRUMP: TALKS W/ CHINA WILL BE TERMINATED IF 34% TARIFF NOT WITHDRAWN *TRUMP: NEGOTIATIONS W/ OTHER COUNTRIES TAKING PLACE IMMEDIATELY

      CA Business Outlook Survey—First Quarter of 2025
      Submitted Apr 7, 2025      |From bankofcanada.ca

      The Business Outlook Survey was conducted by in-person, video and phone interviews from February 6 to 26, 2025. The Business Leaders’ Pulse is conducted online every month; the latest results are from January, February and March 2025. This quarter’s publication also includes results from Governing Council outreach as well as special consultations with businesses and industry organizations in trade-sensitive sectors. This survey and consultation period was characterized by pervasive uncertainty created by the sudden and unpredictable shifts in US trade policy. The Business Outlook Survey (BOS) indicator—a summary measure of results from key questions in the BOS—reversed its upward trend this quarter and remains below average. This decline is due primarily to lower balances of opinion on employment, investment and measures of future sales, and, to a lesser extent, fewer significant capacity pressures (Chart 1). However, these decreases are partially offset by higher expectations for increases in input prices, with firms expecting costs to rise due to tariffs. This follows more than two years when slowing price increases contributed negatively to the BOS indicator. BoC Survey: 65% of firms believe costs would be pushed higher if widespread tariffs are implemented; as a result, 45% of all firms would increase selling prices. BoC Survey: Overall sentiment has deteriorated amid trade war with US, and uncertainty is widespread. BoC Survey: 32% of firms expect Canada to be in a recession over the next year, up from 15% in Q4.

      Kugler: Inflation Dynamics and the Phillips Curve
      Submitted Apr 7, 2025      |From federalreserve.gov

      Governor Adriana D. Kugler presents a lecture about inflation dynamics and the Phillips Curve to students in Harvard University's Ec10b Principles of Economics class on Monday, April 7, 2025. In the lecture she discusses how pandemic-era inflation came in a series of waves: food, core goods, core services and housing. She then talks about the Phillips curve as a model to capture inflation dynamics. Finally, Governor Kugler explores additional augmentations to the Phillips curve model that could help better explain the most recent inflation episode. Here are the slides from her presentation. • Slide 1. Roadmap of Lecture Slide 2. A Bird’s Eye View of Inflation FED’S KUGLER IN SLIDE PRESENTATION DOES NOT COMMENT ON MONETARY POLICY OUTLOOK FED'S KUGLER DISCUSSES INFLATION DYNAMICS IN SLIDE PRESENTATION

      No one at White House is aware of 90 day pause - CNBC
      Submitted Apr 7, 2025      |From @Trade_The_News|30 comments

      (US) No one at White House is aware of 90 day pause; White House has not confirmed the comment attributed to NEC Dir Hassett - CNBC (More at https://t.co/6AWlBdQ0f2 ) The Hassett comment that turned around markets likely didn't happen Well this is what happens in an emotional market. There were some major market moves on reports of a headline that Hassitt had said this: For a few minutes it was everywhere but it looks like fake news. People were citing CNBC because they talked about the rumor but they didn't report on it. Some were saying ABC but that also looks fake. The huge bid in stocks based on it reversed. The account I cited above now has 2.9K retweets on it and replied to me that they were citing CNBC. The thing is, they put it out before CNBC even mentioned it. Everyone is trying to get news out quickly (including us) but this headline doesn't look real. *WHITE HOUSE: 90 DAY PAUSE 'FAKE NEWS'

      Trump: Tough but fair parameters are being set
      Submitted Apr 7, 2025      |From @realDonaldTrump|5 comments

      Countries from all over the World are talking to us. Tough but fair parameters are being set. Spoke to the Japanese Prime Minister this morning. He is sending a top team to negotiate! They have treated the U.S. very poorly on Trade. They don’t take our cars, but we take MILLIONS of theirs. Likewise Agriculture, and many other “things.” It all has to change, but especially with CHINA!!! TRUMP: COUNTRIES ALL OVER WORLD TALKING TO US TRUMP: TOUGH BUT FAIR PARAMETERS ARE BEING SET TRUMP: SPOKE TO JAPAN TRUMP: JAPAN SENDING NEGOTIATING TEAM

      The impact of Trump’s tariffs so far
      Submitted Apr 7, 2025      |From think.ing.com

      US President Donald Trump's declaration of extensive tariffs has led to market turmoil, posing risks of a trade war and a potential US recession. Here, we look at the main impacts so far. Impact on the US: Consumers will face higher costs of about ...

      Navarro: tariffs will pay for the biggest tax cut in American history
      Submitted Apr 7, 2025      |From @DeItaone

      NAVARRO: TARIFFS WILL PAY FOR THE BIGGEST TAX CUT IN AMERICAN HISTORY US WH Trade Adviser: Trade Partners Zeroing Tariffs Is First Start – CNBC - Trump Seeking Cuts To Tariffs, Non-Tariff Barriers Trump Trade Adviser Navarro: Vietnam's 0% tariff offer is not enough. It's the non-tariff cheating that matters. NAVARRO: ELON MUSK IS A 'CAR ASSEMBLER,' PARTS COME FROM OTHER COUNTRIES NAVARRO: WE WANT AUTO PARTS MADE IN U.S,

      Hassett: More than 50 countries negotiating on tariffs
      Submitted Apr 7, 2025      |From @DeItaone|16 comments

      HASSETT: MORE THAN 50 COUNTRIES NEGOTIATING ON TARIFFS WHITE HOUSE ECONOMIC ADVISER HASSETT TAIWAN REACH OUT OVERNIGHT ON TARIFFS -FOX NEWS INTERVIEW HASSETT: TRUMP IS DOUBLING DOWN ON SOMETHING HE KNOWS WORKS -FOX NEWS US NEC Director Hassett: Trump Is Doubling Down On Something He Knows Works - Fox News Interview - Time To Ease Off Rhetoric A Bit - Trump Will Decide If Trade Deals Are Great Enough - Some 'Great' Deals Countries Are Bringing On Tariffs