Yes, I'd agree with that too. Just for now, it depends which data point lags another and at what point in the future all of relevant data points then correlate on the same trend.

German business activity falls at fastest rate since May 2020

Yes, I'd agree. That's a pretty good assessment, broad-brush.

German business activity falls at fastest rate since May 2020

Hesron, I know you have been present in FF for quite some time and I presume that you trade actively but surely to goodness, by now I'd have expected you to cotton on to some important points. ALL markets can be "manipulated" if defined in the terms ...

Retail sales increased 0.7% in July, better than the 0.4% estimate

The population of the USA is supposedly about 334m people. The number of people in work is supposedly about 161m people. Help yourself by working out, in percentage terms, whether a difference of 6k is significant or not. It's a bit like asking if a ...

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims

Don't waste your time trying to convince anyone that a roughly 55%:45% split = 100%:0%. It's simply not worth anyone's time gathering any plausible evidence never mind anyone's time reading it nor trying to understand the claimed logic.

Money and Credit - June 2023

I think you'll find that Bones was asking you a leading question, on purpose, in order to prove to yourself that your assertion was wrong. He was correct to point out that the UK doesn't Import "EVERYTHING". Your response was only to highlight what ...

Money and Credit - June 2023

At this point in time, GPU has lost 1% in hours after CPI was revealed as having dropped by 0.8% p.a., so the markets have immediately increased the RoI on all imports, making it increasingly likely that real term rates continue to have a large ...

Consumer price inflation, UK: June 2023

Eh? Inflation is ALWAYS in the mix of ANY Currency, Commodity, you-name-it. Are you sure about whether you meant what you stated as , taken literally, it means you'd pretty well never, ever trade?

University of Michigan preliminary sentiment for July 72.6 versus 65.5 estimate

"So... you are agreeing but consider society's position on "the scale" to be currently in the safe zone." In a word, "Yes". One can argue that just about any matter is on a sliding scale between public calm and riot. However, I remake the following ...

Labour market overview, UK: July 2023

Further evidence of RoI still being deep-rooted, which implies that BoE will still be raising interest rates at a pace.

Labour market overview, UK: July 2023

Crikey, that's a bit extreme. There is a spectrum of consequences and 'social unrest' is way down the other end of the spectrum that represents the current status. Until people become less certain that they can even ASK for wage rises rather than ...

Labour market overview, UK: July 2023

From my own Alg-trading perspective, I couldn't care less what the News is or how the MM's react, never mind whether even THEY believe it or not (just because the market moves short-term in one direction does NOT mean the MM's believe anything). The ...

ADP National Employment Report: US Private Sector Employment Increased by 497,000 Jobs in...

That figure is just so out of range, one has to wonder if it's creditable. Dig into the detail.

ADP National Employment Report: US Private Sector Employment Increased by 497,000 Jobs in...

Too many people get caught up in the idea that Large Pocket Traders (Market-Makers/MM's) have multiple levels of thought beyond meeting their own primary objective. All you need to know is that they have much larger pockets than most and can ...

Statement by Philip Lowe, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision

There are lots of reasons for that happening but just two are 1) some big pockets needing to cover their wrong assumptions and 2) a desire by big pockets to clear out small pockets as ground work for the larger desired move.

Statement by Philip Lowe, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision

Good independent thinking but will 'The Blob' get her over time?

BOE Newcomer Greene Warns Inflation Won’t Automatically Fall

The French, German, UK and USA's Manufacturing and Service PMI's have all come out to show declining Manufacturing and growing Services. UK and US figures are pretty similar. Just pattern observation on my part, no more.

US economic upturn slows in June as dependence on services grows

All good and fair points and I apologise for misinterpreting your previous entries with regard to agenda. I look forward to your future entries, as always.

Bank Of England's Bailey: Inflation Is Still Too High And We Have Got To Deal With It - If...

NotBoris: you know I think you're great and always interesting but I think your crack at the Tory Government is only partly correct. I know you don't like the Tories, so I have to assume your stance is coming from a perspective of an aspiration for ...

Bank Of England's Bailey: Inflation Is Still Too High And We Have Got To Deal With It - If...

Maybe but the idyll of soft-landings is not a big target-area and probably fairly unlikely to be achieved. One assured way to pop inflation is to induce a recession. No one would WANT that but it is a consequence of pulling out liquidity and ...

Bank Rate increased to 5% - June 2023