Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. Soybean Meal COT Change (52W) / C – 26%, LS – 19%, SS – 15% / In my last post, I’ve wrote that we have a relatively good buying opportunity – nothing special, but it’s there. Things have ...

Follow the Smart Money / COT Analysis

Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. Soybean Meal COT Change (52W) / C – 33%, LS – 22%, SS – 26% / Both cot signals point upwards: we have a larger change in Trader’s positions plus a relative bullish cot extreme. I wouldn’t ...

Follow the Smart Money / COT Analysis

Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. Dow Jones-30 COT Change (52W) / C – 24%, LS – 22% / The larger changes in Traders positions suggests that we should see a bit of a prices rise in the next few days… We’ll see. We do not ...

Follow the Smart Money / COT Analysis

Hi verv, Yes, you are right. Since this is a zero sum game, LS and C are usually opposite of each other. Your question is thus very logical: why is it called commercials capitulation, why not Large Specs capitulation? To understand better, think ...

Follow the Smart Money / COT Analysis

Hi Ck87, Coffee: We have had large bearish cot extreme during most of 2014, thus we should not be surprised to see prices falling now. We’ve moved away from these bearish extremes and slowly, steadily getting closer to bullish extremes. Still far ...

Follow the Smart Money / COT Analysis

Hi EZ, Thanks very much for your post! Yes, I have noticed it and yes, it truly is important to look at OI parallel! I guess we will see in a few weeks, months what happens to USD. It’s always easy to “spot” an extreme coinciding with a top/bottom ...

Follow the Smart Money / COT Analysis

Hi verv, I understand why it seems to be illogical, but occasionally it does happen. In post42 I wrote a bit about this phenomenon, I advise you to read it. Essentially what happens to these Commercials is that they start getting margin calls, they ...

Follow the Smart Money / COT Analysis

Hi verv, Yes... USD Index is definetly an interesting market these days... but because of the many correlations and obvious fundamentals, we have to be very cautious with our assumptions based on purely cot analysis. There is no question about the ...

Follow the Smart Money / COT Analysis

Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. Soybean Oil COT Change (52W) / C – 30%, LS – 32% / Not a market that I suggest to you now… Reasons: COT Change signal coming a bit late (prices have already dropped since the report date ...

Follow the Smart Money / COT Analysis

Hi Ck87, I have posted a coffee chart for you. You are right, this decline did not come unexpected at all. It is a good question though: how long can this go on for? Well, judging by the cot report, we may easily state that to have a strong bullish ...

Follow the Smart Money / COT Analysis

No problem, I'm glad if I could help! All the best, Dunstan

Follow the Smart Money / COT Analysis

Hi verv, Generally speaking, an extreme net position exists, when a Trader category builds up such amount of short or long positions that have not existed for a very long time. Now one may ask, what counts for “very long time”… that is something to ...

Follow the Smart Money / COT Analysis

Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. S&P-500 COT Change (52W) / C – 30%, LS – 32% / No extreme and a bullish cot change signal = the rally can continue Japanese Yen COT Extreme /LS – 118 report COT extreme / Not much has ...

Follow the Smart Money / COT Analysis

Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. Nasdaq-100 COT Change (52W) / C – 23%, LS – 37%, SS – 31% / Mainly the cot change signal that can help us this week: LS increasing their net long positions, C their net short positions ...

Follow the Smart Money / COT Analysis

Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. Soybean Meal COT Change (52W) / C – 27%, LS – 22% / The cot change signal is bullish and so is the cot extreme signal. Although we cannot talk about a very large cot extreme, we can see ...

Follow the Smart Money / COT Analysis

Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. (sorry for being late a bit) Dow Jones-30 COT Change (52W) / C – 33%, LS – 31% / COT Extreme /SS – All Time COT extreme / Both of our main cot signals are pointing downwards… we have a ...

Follow the Smart Money / COT Analysis

Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. Cocoa COT Change (52W) / C – 41%, LS – 36%, SS - 49% / The two main cot signals pointing in opposite direction. On one hand, we have a pretty large change in Traders positions, suggesting ...

Follow the Smart Money / COT Analysis

Hi Ck87, I have attached a chart showing you the full cot history for Natural Gas. As you may see, we are not that far away from all time extreme leves in case of Commercials and LS. All the best, Dunstan

Follow the Smart Money / COT Analysis

Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. Swiss Franc COT Change (52W) / C – 40%, LS – 40%, SS - 36% / Are we surprised? We shouldn’t be… So we have a huge cot change signal, bearish one. I’d say it may not be the best time to ...

Follow the Smart Money / COT Analysis

Yes, I have to aggree again... We may need to wait for another few months, maybe even one or two year even (!), but judging by it's history, we should expect a move higher /or we can re-phrase it and also say: we shouldn't expect prices to go much ...

Follow the Smart Money / COT Analysis